The UAE’s Macroeconomic Transformation, 2025–2030

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is poised for robust economic expansion, with real GDP growth forecast to average 4.7% between 2025 and 2030, outpacing the 2.6% recorded between 2019 and 2024. Population growth is anticipated to stay positive, reaching 12.3 million in 2030 from 11.1 million in 2024, with the share of adult and middle-aged adult and older-age adult segments rising from 56.1% to 56.5% and from 1.8% to 2.3%, respectively. Long-term residency schemes, educational reforms, and a favorable environment for skilled migrants will strengthen the size and competencies of the labor market, while rising incomes and improved healthcare access will support steady consumption growth.

This UAE-focused macroeconomic thought leadership provides a comprehensive snapshot of the country's transition toward a diversified economy. Over 70% of the GDP is expected to stem from non-oil sectors, with an average annual non-oil GDP contribution of 76.5% between 2025 and 2030. The UAE is cementing its position as the region’s leader in green energy, technology and digitalization, and transport and logistics, with policy-driven investments from both the government and private firms accelerating the shift. A pro-business environment, featuring digital enterprise incentives, streamlined business setup processes, and tax-efficient free zones, is enhancing the UAE’s appeal as a hub for global commerce and entrepreneurship.

Aligned with macroeconomic trends and strategic government initiatives, this study evaluates the UAE’s growth opportunities across oil and non-oil industries, highlighting emerging investment themes and sectoral prospects. Long-term residency schemes and skilled workforce attraction policies are fostering a highly diverse talent pool, ensuring sustained innovation and economic resilience. The report concludes with industry-specific insights and growth opportunities, offering market players and stakeholders a roadmap to capitalize on the UAE’s rapid macroeconomic transformation.