Global Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap for Heavy-Duty Trucks

Global Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap for Heavy-Duty Trucks

Greenhouse gas/fuel efficiency regulations in TRIAD countries and increasingly stringent tailpipe emission standards in developing countries will shape the powertrain strategies of OEMs over the next decade. This study provides an overview of key future fuel efficiency and tailpipe emission regulations across different regions for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. North America is adopting GHG regulations and will next focus on ultra NOx regulations (medium term). Europe has developed a tool for CO2 monitoring and will soon implement GHG regulations. India will shift from BS IV to BS VI (equivalent to the Euro VI) by 2020; it will have a fuel efficiency regulation in place from 2018. China will shift to China VI in 2 phases - 2020 and 2023; Phase 3 fuel efficiency regulations will be implemented in 2023.

These regulations will augment the penetration of advanced diesel engine technologies such as advanced turbochargers, automated manual transmission, advanced aftertreatment systems, and electrification. In addition, novel engine architecture such as opposed piston engines, split cycle engines, double compression expansion engines, and the Miller cycle will be explored to improve the brake thermal efficiency of diesel engines.

Falling battery prices, broader incentive policies, and charging infrastructure developments will boost the trend of electrification. Battery pack prices are expected to fall below $100 per kWh by 2023, with high battery production capacities of 250+ GWh globally. With growing battery availability and technology-readiness, fully electric vehicles will gain prominence and will be largely used across all regions by 2025. OEMs have also announced plans to manufacture electric trucks and range-extended powertrain. Fuel cell technology will gain prominence after 2022 due to the advantages of reduced component weight and packaging size.

North American OEMs have commercialized most technological advancements from the SuperTruck I program, and a strong push for electrification across major OEMs and EV start-ups is being observed. European OEMs are shifting to vertically integrated engines and transmission with proprietary turbochargers, and these facilitate precise control over vehicle drivetrain. As part of powertrain diversification, OEMs are focusing on proprietary natural gas engines and EV platforms. Chinese OEMs are leveraging technology partnerships with European OEMs and engine research institutes to upgrade diesel engines to meet upcoming regulations. Further, government incentives are driving rapid progress in electrification across different Chinese OEMs. Indian OEMs are adopting a two-pronged approach by improving in-house engine platforms and sourcing advanced diesel engine technologies from tier 1 engine suppliers, Japanese OEMs, and European engine research institutes.

Research scope
The study aims to identify the major powertrain strategies that will be deployed by OEMs to meet forthcoming fuel efficiency and GHG regulations.
Research Highlights
Provide a strategic overview of the regional regulations that control emission and help to improve fuel efficiency and quality in North America, Europe, China, and India
Discuss the technology penetration of advanced powertrain technologies across rigid and tractor vehicles
Provide a technology outlook of the advanced diesel engine technologies used in HD vehicles
Furnish a strategic overview of electrification uptake across HD vehicles
Discuss powertrain outlook, penetration, and technology deep dive of global HD OEMs
Provide strategic recommendations and conclusions for OEMs in the HD truck market

Key Issues Addressed
What are the key tailpipe emission and fuel efficiency and economy regulations shaping the dynamics of the powertrain strategies of global OEMs?
What is the technology penetration of advanced powertrain technologies across rigid and tractor vehicles in North America, Europe, China, and India?
What is the technology outlook of advanced diesel engine technologies?
What are the key developments in terms of the electrification of global HD trucks?
What are the key powertrain strategies of global HD truck OEMs?

  • Executive Summary
    • Key Takeaways
    • Diesel Engine Powertrain Trends for 2025 and Beyond
    • HD Vehicle Emission Regulations Outlook
    • GHG/Fuel Economy Regulations Outlook
    • HD Truck Powertrain Overview
    • Diesel versus Electric Long-Haul Truck TCO Comparison
    • Global Powertrain Mix - Unit Shipment Snapshot
    • Technology Penetration versus Region-Tractor Segment
    • Key OEM Diesel Powertrain Strategies
    • Regulatory Environment and OEM Compliance Strategy
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology
  • Definitions
    • Definitions of Key Technologies
  • Global Emission and Fuel Economy and Quality Regulatory Environment
    • Global Regulations-Tailpipe and Fuel Economy and Quality
    • Global Tractor Truck Standards for CO2 Reduction
    • Global Emission Regulation Limits
      • Table HD Engine Technology Roadmap: Emission Regulation Limits, Global, 2017-2030
    • Powertrain Technologies for Fuel Efficiency Improvements
    • Technology Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential: Class 8 Line-Haul Tractor-Engine Technology
      • Table HD Engine Technology Roadmap: Class 8 Tractor Technology FC/CO2 Reduction Potential and Cost, US, 2016
    • Technology Penetration versus Region - Tractor and Rigid
  • Advanced Diesel Engine Technology Overview
    • Engine Technology Packages and Effective Fuel Consumption Reduction
    • Technology Outlook-Waste Heat Recovery
    • Technology Outlook-Miller Cycle in Engines: Scania
    • Technology Outlook-Split Cycle Engine: Ricardo
    • Technology Outlook-Double Compression Expansion Engine: Volvo
    • Technology Outlook-Opposed Piston Engine: Achates Power
    • Technology Outlook-Multi-functional SCR-DPF Aftertreatment Systems
    • Technology Outlook-48V System Design
  • Powertrain Regulatory and Technology Outlook - North America
    • Regulatory Environment-North America
    • GHG and Fuel Economy Standards-North America
    • CARB Ultra Low NOx Regulations-Impact on Powertrain
    • North American Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
    • Ultra Low Nox-Enabling Technologies
    • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: North America
    • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: North America
    • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-North America
  • Powertrain Regulatory and Technology Outlook- Europe
    • Regulatory Environment-Europe
    • HD Vehicle CO2 Standards-Europe
    • European Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
    • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: Europe
    • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: Europe
    • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-Europe
  • Powertrain Regulatory and Technology Outlook- China
    • Regulatory Environment-China
    • China‚Äôs Fuel Efficiency Standards
      • Table HD Engine Technology Roadmap: Emission Regulations, China, 2009-2024
    • Chinese Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
    • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: China
    • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: China
    • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-China
  • Powertrain Regulatory and Technology Outlook- India
    • Regulatory Environment-India
    • Fuel Consumption Standards-India
      • Table HD Engine Technology Roadmap: Phase 1 and 2 Fuel Consumption Standards at 40km/h and 60 km/h, India, 2018-2030
    • Indian Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment Snapshot
      • Table HD Engine Technology Roadmap: Expected HD Sales by Powertrain, India, 2017, 2025, & 2030
    • Technology Penetration-Rigid Trucks: India
    • Technology Penetration-Tractor Trucks: India
    • OEM Powertrain Technology Adoption Drivers-India
  • Progression of Electrification Technology
    • Electric HD Market Outlook of Key Regions-2025
    • Global Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) Adoption Perspective
    • Global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption Perspective
    • Global Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Adoption Perspective
    • OEM New Dedicated Platforms-Powertrain Flexibility Comparison
  • Global OEM Powertrain Strategies-Powertrain Strategy: AB Volvo
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Volvo
    • Technology Deep Dive-Volvo
  • Powertrain Strategy-Navistar, Inc.
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Navistar
    • Technology Deep Dive-Navistar
  • Powertrain Strategy-VW Group (MAN SE)
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights - MAN SE
    • Technology Deep Dive-MAN SE
  • Powertrain Strategy-VW Group (Scania)
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Scania
    • Technology Deep Dive-Scania
  • Powertrain Strategy-PACCAR Inc.
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-PACCAR
    • Technology Deep Dive-PACCAR
  • Powertrain Strategy-Daimler AG
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Daimler
    • Technology Deep Dive-Daimler
  • Powertrain Strategy-Cummins Inc
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Cummins
    • Technology Deep Dive-Cummins
  • Powertrain Strategy-IVECO
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-IVECO
    • Technology Deep Dive-IVECO
  • Powertrain Strategy-ASHOK LEYLAND
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-ASHOK LEYLAND
    • Technology Deep Dive-ASHOK LEYLAND
  • Powertrain Strategy-Tata Motors
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Tata Motors
    • Technology Deep Dive-Tata Motors
  • Powertrain Strategy-ISUZU Motors Limited
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights- Isuzu
    • Technology Deep Dive-Isuzu
  • Powertrain Strategy-Hino Motors, Ltd.
    • Powertrain Outlook and Key Highlights-Hino Motors
    • Technology Deep Dive-Hino Motors
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity-Breakthrough Trends and Companies
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used

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