Slovenia Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI View: As a result of Slovenia's limited external and internal security threats, as well as its weak economy, the country's defence sector is small on a regional comparison. Although Prime Minister Miro Cerar has announced that his government is committed to raising military spending - and despite an improvement in economic conditions from 2016 onwards - we do not expect the defence budget to grow significantly over our forecast period to 2019, as the country will remain relatively secure, and with Ljubljana continuing to direct the majority of funding towards socio-economic development. Meanwhile, the Slovenian defence sector will remain focused on production of parts and components rather than complete products, as local manufacturers lack advanced technological capabilities and investment into defence R&D is limited.
In 2016, we forecast the Slovenian defence budget to reach a value of USD545mn, a 4.4% increase on 2015 levels. This figure continues to make up a comparatively small proportion of GDP. At just 1.3%, in both 2015 and 2016, Slovenia's defence expenditure remains well below the NATO requirement of 2%, illustrating the low level of threat from domestic unrest, terrorism, crime and interstate conflict - as well as still-weak macroeconomic conditions. Prime Minister Miro Cerar has previously stated that his government is committed to raising the Slovenian military budget; however, we do not expect any large spending increases over our forecast period to 2019, as Ljubljana continues to focus its budget on socio-economic development. Moreover, out of the defence budget's already small share of overall spending, the vast majority will be directed towards personnel and maintenance expenses, rather than new procurement and R&D.
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