Morocco Agribusiness Report Q1 2013Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Dec. 12, 2012 - 80 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe heat wave that has affected Morocco in recent months has damaged the outlook for 2012/13agricultural output. Grain production is forecast to drop, forcing the country to import significantamounts of grains in the short term. This will very likely keep food price inflation high and GDP growthlower. The dairy sector is benefiting from growing interest from international dairy companies and islikely to enjoy strong growth in the coming years. In the livestock industry, we expect increasedgovernment support and investment – backed by strong domestic demand – to help these sectors todevelop.Key Forecasts Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 39.2% to 8.4mn tonnes. This will come on the back ofsteady growth in the country’s wheat demand, a result of strong economic growth. Increasedplanting and productivity gains will also help to support output. Milk consumption growth to 2016/17: 22.4% to 561,700 tonnes. The ubiquity of domesticmilk-producing animals means that household consumption of fresh milk is easily facilitated andvirtually recession-proof. Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 25.1% to 851,900 tonnes. The sector is likely tocontinue to benefit from ongoing investment in the modernisation and expansion of broilerproduction, in addition to strong domestic demand. Real GDP growth 2013: 3.5%, down from 2.5% in 2012. Over the longer term, we forecastGDP growth to average 4.0% between 2012 and 2017. Consumer price inflation 2013: 2.0% average, up from 1.5% in 2012. We forecast inflation toaverage 1.5% between 2012 and 2017. BMI universe agribusiness market value: 15.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) drop to US$4.3bn in2013, forecast to grow on average 4.1% annually between 2012 and 2017. Record Deficit Morocco – Wheat Production Balance (‘000 tonnes) f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI Key Developments We have revised down our forecast for wheat production in Morocco due to delayed plantings anddroughts resulting in the destruction of wheat fields. We maintain our view for the country to importsignificantly more wheat in the coming months because of a historically low production balance andinsufficient stocks. Higher imports are likely to push up food prices while dragging on domesticconsumption and balance of payments dynamics. Even though we see temporary tightness in the wheatmarkets because of adverse weather conditions in the EU, the Black Sea region and the US, we believeMorocco will be able to supply its production deficit in the coming months, especially as the harvest inthe northern hemisphere started in July. Major dairy companies are investing in Morocco’s dairy sector in order to strengthen milk production inthe North Africa region and benefit from strong consumption growth in the coming years. The country isoften used as a base to export to the wider region, including Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. French foodgroup Danone announced in June 2012 it paid EUR550mn (US$685mn) to take control of Morocco’s topdairy product company, Centrale Laitière. Nestlé is set to invest US$5.7mn in Morocco to strengthenmilk production in the region. Domestic feed supply is likely to be tight in the coming months, as droughts in various growing regionsdestroyed wheat fields and delayed plantings, leading to a steep drop in expected final production for2012/13. As a result, Morocco will need to import more feed grains, which will make the livestockindustry vulnerable to the international grain prices rally that started in June 2012. Small-scale livestockfarmers also suffered from the heat wave that struck Morocco in August 2012. However, poultry pricesare likely to inflate in the coming month, encouraging producers to boost output in 2012/13. Get full details about this report >> |
|
|
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||
|
|
On the WEB
1/17/2013 - 32