Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts

Published by: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd

Published: Nov. 20, 2012 - 176 Pages


Table of Contents

1. Telecoms Market Moving into 2013
1.1 Telecoms a vibrant and changing industry
1.2 Telco industry remains under pressure
1.3 Business models for telcos in an OTT world
1.3.1 The changing nature of the network market
1.3.2 Networks critical for social and economic development
1.3.3 Higher level values are moving elsewhere
1.3.4 Where are the opportunities for the telcos?
1.4 Infrastructure
1.4.1 The end of the line for PSTN and HFC networks
1.4.2 Open systems lead to ‘economies of scope’
1.4.3 The gigabyte household needs FttH access
1.5 Broadband is essential for social and economic development
1.6 The National Broadband Network
1.6.1 The business opportunities of the POIs
1.6.2 The NBN and the opportunity for ‘virtual’ players
1.7 The Internet Monopoly
1.7.1 The all-powerful social network sites
1.7.2 Lack of a permission-based approach
1.7.3 Customer experience
1.7.4 The internet of things
1.7.5 Users have no control over their own data
1.7.6 Heaven for data-miners
1.7.7 USA-dominated control
1.7.8 Call for better internet governance
1.7.9 Reluctance from social networks to come to the party
1.7.10 Vulnerable user groups
1.7.11 Technological solutions
1.7.12 Conclusion
1.8 Trans-sector regulation
1.8.1 Regulations need to be rewritten
1.8.2 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) will change telecom models
1.8.3 Utilities-based regulation
1.8.4 Removing blockages
1.9 Digital Media
1.9.1 IPTV slow but steady progress
1.9.2 Smart connected TVs and online streaming
1.10 Value added infrastructure services
1.10.1 Do we need infrastructure-based competition?
1.10.2 Shifting clouds
1.10.3 The IT complexity of cloud computing
1.10.4 M2M growth market for the industry
1.10.5 The compelling business of M2M and Big Data
1.11 Mobile market - infrastructure running out of steam
1.11.1 Capacity requirements will be 1000x by 2020
1.11.2 Fixed Mobile Conversion (FMC)
1.11.3 Small cell networks
1.11.4 Heterogeneous networks
1.11.5 Muddling along
1.11.6 Mobile competition starts to bite in Australia
1.11.7 Is network sharing the answer
2. Statistical Overview of the Telecoms Market - By Provider
2.1 Total telecommunications services market
2.1.1 Revenue, revenue growth and market share by major provider
2.2 Telstra
2.2.1 Financial results by sector
2.2.2 Analysis of financial results
2.3 Optus
2.3.1 Financial results by sector
2.3.2 Analysis of financial results
2.4 Vodafone Hutchison Australia
2.4.1 Background
2.4.2 Financial and operations overview FY 2012
2.5 Capital expenditure
2.5.1 Statistical overview by operator
3. Statistical Overview of the Telecoms Market - By Service
3.1 Total telco market by major service
3.2 Wholesale market
3.2.1 The market in into 2013
3.2.2 Wholesale revenues in Australia
3.3 Mobile market
3.3.1 Market overview and analysis
3.3.2 Revenue by service
3.3.3 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
3.4 Broadband market
3.4.1 Internet access revenues
4. 2nd-tier Telco Market 2012
4.1 Service revenues and market shares
4.1.1 Total market by major service
4.1.2 Total market by major players
5. Market Forecasts - 2015, 2020
5.1 Industry transformation
5.2 Fixed infrastructure market
5.3 Wholesale market
5.4 The retail market
5.5 Penetration forecasts
5.5.1 Roll out penetration
5.5.2 Broadband access penetration
5.5.3 Stats and demographics for the 2012-2015 NBN footprint
5.6 The mobile market
5.7 The digital economy - trans-sector market
5.7.1 Forecasts – 2015; 2020
5.7.2 The digital media market
5.7.3 Business market survey
5.8 Business models and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
5.8.1 Fixed market scenarios
5.8.2 Mobile market scenarios
6. Broadband Market
6.1 Statistical overview
6.1.1 Overall size of the market
6.1.2 Access revenues
6.1.3 Other surveys and statistics
6.1.4 ISP market overview
6.1.5 Benchmarking with other countries
6.2 DSL Market
6.2.1 Regulatory environment – analysis
6.2.2 DSL infrastructure
6.2.3 Brief overview of broadband providers market
6.3 Business Market
6.3.1 Market trends
6.3.2 Business market surveys
6.3.3 Business customer expenditure on telecoms
6.4 Residential market
6.4.1 Statistical overview residential market – total telecoms
6.4.2 Internet household statistics
6.4.3 Trends in the residential market
6.4.4 Household use of technology
6.4.5 Other residential market surveys
7. Mobile Communications Market
7.1 Revenue Overview
7.1.1 Statistical sources
7.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
7.1.3 Operator statistics
7.2 Subscriber Statistics
7.2.1 Statistical sources
7.2.2 Mobile subscriber statistics
8. Mobile Broadband
8.1.1 Market overview and analysis
8.1.2 Wireless broadband market statistics
8.1.3 Forecasts and other developments
8.1.4 Australia - mobile media – premium rate SMS (PSMS) portals and apps
9. Glossary of Abbreviations
List of Tables, Exhibits and Charts
Table 1 – Total telecoms revenues by major providers – 2000 - 2013
Table 2 – Total telecoms service market share by major providers – 2003 - 2013
Table 3 – Telstra Group total revenue and annual change – 2000 - 2012
Table 4 – Telstra Group revenue by service and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 5 – Telstra fixed telephony revenue and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 6 – Telstra PSTN products revenue and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 7 – Telstra mobile revenue and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 8 – Telstra fixed broadband revenue by service stream and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 9 – Telstra IP and data access revenue and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 10 – Telstra offshore controlled entities revenue and annual change – 2011 - 2012
Table 11 – Optus overall operating revenue summary and annual change – 2000 - 2013
Table 12 – Optus revenue by major and minor service category – 2011 - 2012
Table 13 – Optus operating revenue by operating division – 2011 - 2012
Table 14 – Operational EBITDA by operating division – 2008 - 2012
Table 15 – HTA key metrics – financial overview – 2009 - 2012
Table 16 – Vodafone Australia revenue – 2009 - 2012
Table 17 – Vodafone – subscribers by type – 2009 - 2013
Table 18 – Total capital expenditure by major network provider – 2009 - 2012
Table 19 – Annual change in total capital expenditure by major network provider – 2010 - 2012
Table 20 – Total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2001 - 2013
Table 21 – Total telecoms market – annual retail growth by service – 2001 - 2013
Table 22 – Total telecoms market – retail market share by service – 2000 - 2013
Table 23 – Wholesale market revenues by major supplier – 2000 - 2013
Table 24 – Wholesale market shares – by major supplier – 2000 - 2013
Table 25 – Annual change in wholesale market revenues by major supplier – 2000 - 2013
Table 26 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 2000 - 2013
Table 27 – Mobile services market revenue per major operator – 2000 - 2013
Table 28 – Annual change of mobile services market per major operator – 2000 - 2013
Table 29 – Estimated proportion of mobile service revenue from voice and data – 2007 - 2013
Table 30 – Blended ARPU per month per major operator – 2000 - 2013
Table 31 – Blended ARPU per month per major operator – annual change – 2004 - 2013
Table 32 – Internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up) by major provider – 2003 - 2013
Table 33 – Annual change in internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up) by major provider – 2004 - 2013
Table 34 – Market share of internet access revenues (broadband and dial-up) by major provider – 2004 - 2013
Table 35 – Estimated selected second-tier telco revenues by service – 2010 - 2012
Table 36 – Selected second-tier telco revenues by service – annual change – 2010 - 2012
Table 37 – Estimated selected second-tier telco revenues by service – 2003 - 2009
Table 38 – Selected second-tier telco revenues by service – annual change – 2004 - 2009
Table 39 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider – 2009 - 2012
Table 40 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – annual change – 2009 - 2012
Table 41 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider – relative market shares – 2009 - 2012
Table 42 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by provider (historic) – 2004 - 2007
Table 43 – Second-tier telcos – revenue by major provider (historic) – relative market shares – 2004 - 2007
Table 44 – NBN take up rates first release sites
Table 45 – Broadband uptake* scenario forecasts – 2015; 2020 (household penetration)
Table 46 – Impacts of the NBN on industry output at 2020 (% change)
Table 47 – Total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2000 - 2013
Table 48 – Broadband subscribers – total market by technology – 2008 - 2012
Table 49 – Broadband market – overall market share by technology – 2003 - 2012
Table 50 – Broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2012
Table 51 – Annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2012
Table 52 – Market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2012
Table 53 – Estimated fixed broadband ARPUs – 2006 - 2012
Table 54 – Internet subscribers by access technology – 2008 - 2012
Table 55 – Broadband market share by technology and annual change – 2008 - 2012
Table 56 – Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology – 2010 - 2012
Table 57 – Terabytes of data downloaded by access technology (historic) – 2008 - 2009
Table 58 – Business, government and household internet subscribers (historic) – 2007 - 2009
Table 59 – Subscribers’ average speed in Australia versus selected countries – 2010 - 2012
Table 60 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2012
Table 61 – Business, government and household internet subscribers by download speed – 2009 - 2012
Table 62 – Number of ISPs by size in the Australian market – 2008 - 2012
Table 63 – Number of ISPs – 2001 - 2012
Table 64 – Fixed broadband access among internet households – selected countries – 2006 - 2011
Table 65 – Market penetration of households with broadband access as a percentage of all households – Australia and selected countries – 2009 - 2011
Table 66 – Top ten OECD countries by wireless broadband subscriptions - 2011
Table 67 – Number of infrastructure providers by number of ADSL-enabled exchanges – 2007 - 2008; 2010 - 2011
Table 68 – Number of DSLAMs by major providers – 2009 - 2012
Table 69 – Total number of DSLAMs – 2006 - 2012
Table 70 – Number of ADSL and ADSL2+-enabled exchanges – 2012
Table 71 – Top Hat proposed and enabled ADSL2 exchanges – 2011 - 2012
Table 72 – ISP customer satisfaction ratings of selected ISPs – 2010 - 2011
Table 73 – Broadband DSL retail subscribers by major provider – 2008 - 2012
Table 74 – Total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2013
Table 75 – Business takeup of broadband by access type – 2010 - 2012
Table 76 – SME online trends – 2011 - 2012
Table 77 – SME computer equipment ownership trends – 1999 - 2012
Table 78 – Computer software and hardware expenditure – SMEs versus medium businesses – 2001 - 2012
Table 79 – Business trends in internet connections – 1998 - 2012
Table 80 – SMEs internet access methods, by technology – 2010 - 2012
Table 81 – Top 10 current uses of the internet by SMEs – 2010 - 2012
Table 82 – Estimated telco product mix of business customer spend – 2013(e)
Table 83 – Estimated business and government market spending – 2013(e)
Table 84 – Providers’ market share – 2013(e)
Table 85 – Revenue mix – total spend of telecoms – SME market – 2013(e)
Table 86 – Revenue mix – total spend of telecoms – residential market – 2013
Table 87 – Service providers’ market share and revenue in the residential market – 2013
Table 88 – Total households versus internet enabled households – 1999 - 2012
Table 89 – Broadband component of internet enabled households – 2005 - 2012; 2015
Table 90 – Internet access households with children – 2005 - 2009; 2010 - 2011
Table 91 – Internet usage by age group – 2010
Table 92 – Data usage by users – 2008 - 2012
Table 93 – Dial-up and non-dial-up internet subscribers – 2003 - 2012
Table 94 – Computerisation in the home – 2012
Table 95 – Top 5 social networking age groups – 2011 - 2012
Table 96 – Weekly internet usage by age group – 2012
Table 97 – Total new complaints to the TIO – 2006 - 2012
Table 98 – Number of complaints to the TIO – by levels – 2011 - 2012
Table 99 – Total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 1993 - 2014
Table 100 – Mobile services market revenue per major operator – 1993 - 2014
Table 101 – Annual change of mobile services market revenue per major operator – 1994; 1997; 2000 - 2014
Table 102 – Annual change of mobile services market share per major operator – 2000 - 2013
Table 103 – Estimated proportion of mobile service revenue from voice services – 2007 - 2013
Table 104 – Total mobile voice revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2013
Table 105 – Mobile voice revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue – 2007 - 2013
Table 106 – Mobile data revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2012
Table 107 – Annual change in data revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue – 2008 - 2012
Table 108 – Blended ARPU per month per major operator – 2000 - 2012
Table 109 – Blended ARPU per month per major operator – annual change – 2004 - 2012
Table 110 – Postpaid ARPU per month – Telstra, Optus and Vodafone – 2004 - 2010
Table 111 – Mobile data ARPU per month - Telstra and Hutchison – 2004 - 2010
Table 112 – Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change – 2000 - 2012
Table 113 – Mobile subscribers by carrier – 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2013
Table 114 – Annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 1995; 1997; 2000 - 2013
Table 115 – Mobile subscriber market share by carrier – 1993; 1997; 2000 - 2013
Table 116 – 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2003 - 2012
Table 117 – Annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2012
Table 118 – Proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2012
Table 119 – 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2012
Table 120 – Annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2012
Table 121 – Prepaid subscribers by mobile network operator – 2006 - 2013
Table 122 – Prepaid subscribers market share by mobile network operator – 2006 - 2013
Table 123 – Number of mobile phone services in operation - prepaid and postpaid – 2006 - 2013
Table 124 – Wholesale subscribers – Telstra and Optus – 2006 - 2013
Table 125 – Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change – 2007 - 2012
Table 126 – 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2012
Table 127 – Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes – 2007 - 2012; 2015
Table 128 – Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change – 2007 - 2012
Table 129 – Mobile broadband monthly ARPU – 2007 - 2012
Table 130 – Estimated mobile data revenue revenues by mobile network operator – 2008 - 2012
Table 131 – Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator – 2008 - 2012
Table 132 – WiFi hotspots at its peak in the late 2000s
Table 133 – Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues – 2008; 2013; 2018
Chart 1 – Overview of total telecoms service revenue by major providers – 2005 - 2013
Chart 2 – Overview of market share of telecoms revenue by major operator – 2012
Chart 3 – Overview of total capital expenditure by major network provider – 2009 - 2012
Chart 4 – Overview of total telecoms market – retail revenue by service – 2005 - 2013
Chart 5 – Overview of wholesale market revenues by major supplier – 2005 - 2013
Chart 6 – Overview of mobile services market revenue by operator and annual change – 2002 - 2013
Chart 7 – Overview of blended ARPU per month per major operator – 2005 - 2013
Chart 8 – Overview of market share of broadband market access revenue – 2012
Chart 9 – Overview of selected second-tier telco revenues by service – 2010 - 2012
Chart 10 – Overview of selected second-tier telcos – revenue – 2010 - 2012
Chart 11 – Market share size of NBN trans-sector market – 2020
Chart 12 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2015
Chart 13 – NBN services revenue share estimates by market share – 2020
Chart 14 – Overview of total broadband subscribers and annual change – 2002 - 2013
Chart 15 – Overview of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2012
Chart 16 – Overview of annual change in broadband access revenues by major provider – 2006 - 2012
Chart 17 – Overview of market share of broadband access revenues by major provider – 2005 - 2012
Chart 18 – Overview of fixed broadband ARPUs – 2006 - 2012
Chart 19 – Overview of number of ISPs – 1995 - 2012
Chart 20 – Overview of number of ISPs by major technology – 2009 - 2011
Chart 21 – Overview of number of DSLAMs by top 5 providers – 2008 - 2012
Chart 22 – Overview of the rollout of TopHat DSLAM2 upgrades – 2012
Chart 23 – Overview of the top six ISPs with excellent customer service satisfaction ratings – 2009 - 2011
Chart 24 – Overview of total business and residential broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2013
Chart 25 – Overview of ICT takeup issues by businesses – 2009 - 2012
Chart 26 – Overview of SME computer equipment ownership trends by type – 2004 - 2012
Chart 27 – Overview of SME versus medium-sized business computer expenditure – 2005 - 2012
Chart 28 – Overview of estimated market share by provider – 2013(e)
Chart 29 – Overview of residential market – revenue and market share by major provider – 2013
Chart 30 – Overview of households with internet access – 1999 - 2012
Chart 31 – Consumer internet usage hours by category – 2006; 2010
Chart 32 – Overview of the trend in increased data downloaded – 2007 - 2012
Chart 33 – Overview of the decline in dial-up subscriptions – 2003 - 2012
Chart 34 – Overview of new complaints to the TIO – 2006 - 2012
Chart 35 – Overview of consumer and SME complaints by industry sector – 2011 - 2012
Chart 36 – Overview of total mobile services market revenue and annual change – 2002 - 2014
Chart 37 – Overview of mobile services market revenue per major operator – 2002 - 2014
Chart 38 – Overview of annual change of mobile services market revenue per major operator – 2002 - 2014
Chart 39 – Overview of mobile services revenue share per major operator – 2000 - 2013
Chart 40 – Overview of estimated proportion of mobile service revenue from voice and data – 2007 - 2013
Chart 41 – Overview of total mobile voice revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2013
Chart 42 – Overview of mobile voice revenue per major operator as a proportion of total mobile services revenue – 2007 - 2013
Chart 43 – Overview of total mobile data revenue per major operator – 2007 - 2012
Chart 44 – Overview of annual change in mobile data revenue per major operator – 2008 - 2012
Chart 45 – Overview of blended monthly ARPU per major operator – 2000 - 2012
Chart 46 – Overview of prepaid ARPU per month – Telstra, Optus and Vodafone – 2004 - 2010
Chart 47 – Overview of mobile data ARPU per month – Telstra and Hutchison – 2004 - 2010
Chart 48 – Overview of mobile market subscribers versus population – 2000 - 2012
Chart 49 – Overview of mobile subscribers by carrier – 2001 - 2013
Chart 50 – Overview of annual change of mobile subscribers by carrier – 2001 - 2013
Chart 51 – Overview of mobile subscriber market share by carrier – 2001 - 2013
Chart 52 – Overview of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2012
Chart 53 – Overview of annual change of 3G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2012
Chart 54 – Overview of proportion of 3G mobile subscribers versus total subscribers by carrier – 2009 - 2012
Chart 55 – Overview of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2006 - 2012
Chart 56 – Overview of annual change of 2G mobile subscribers by carrier – 2007 - 2012
Chart 57 – Overview of prepaid subscribers by mobile network operator – 2006 - 2013
Chart 58 – Overview of market share of prepaid subscribers by mobile network operator – 2006 - 2013
Chart 59 – Overview of number of mobile phone services in operation - prepaid and postpaid – 2006 - 2012
Chart 60 – Overview of wholesale subscribers – Telstra versus Optus – 2006 - 2013
Chart 61 – Overview of 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator – 2007 - 2012
Chart 62 – Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in petabytes – 2007 - 2012; 2015
Chart 63 – Overview of estimated mobile data revenue by mobile network operator – 2008 - 2012
Exhibit 1 – Business web activity and online ordering – a snapshot from the ABS – 2012
Exhibit 2 – Overview of the TIO complaint handling process
Exhibit 3 – Background information on the 3G race by the MNOs

Abstract

Australia – Telecom Market moving into 2013

Key trends and developments

Telstra has done exceptional well during 2011 and 2012 and set to continue this into 2013. Optus has been holding on but needs to come up with new innovations to progress further, the hope for Vodafone is that 2013 will see an end to their troubles and that they indeed are able to turn the corner and start reclaiming their position in the market. The second-tier market is making gains in broadband and they are stepping up IPTV and other OTT activities and these will then be bundled into their other product offerings. Although the bundled market often sees overall revenues fall, it generally maintains a higher ARPU. Also in 2013 further consolidation is expected.

It has become clear that OTT is ‘the new normal’ for the telecoms industry - with the emerging all-IP networks; telecoms services are basically moving to new business models. These services are seen as a threat by the traditional telcos and so far they have been unable to come back with a competitive reaction. The more likely scenario will be is that the telcos will remain in the access space and will offer wholesale services to the OTT and Apps providers as well as to an increasingly growing number of companies and sectors that are relying on the digital economy. Services here include data centres, cloud computing, data storage, content delivery and other value added infrastructure services.

Mobile and fixed infrastructure will increasing merge and in the end a fibre based network will support hundreds of thousands of smaller and bigger mobile stations delivering services to end users. It is estimated that mobile capacity need to grow a thousand fold over the next decade to cope with customer demand.

Industry and market statistics

Telstra continues to dominate the overall Australian telecom market although just under 60% market share of overall revenues in 2013. Market share continues to drop from the highs that it held in the early 2000s of around 80% market share.

The mobile broadband market is fast becoming a major income revenue stream for the providers, having taken over the mobile voice sector. But increased usage has caused data traffic jams on the 3G networks as the infrastructure was not designed for the rapid increase of traffic over the last couple of years.

Overall BuddeComm expects that the MNOs will have earned over $17.5 billion in revenue from mobile services by mid-2012 – a growth rate of just over 1% year-on-year. Future revenue growth will also be impacted because of increased prices from the MNOs, the MVNOs and the tactics that Vodafone will use after its network is fully upgraded. Although newer telephony services that LTE can provide have brought strong growth in the sector and these new services may increase revenue growth.

For the MNOs, the results of the latest financial year – Telstra’s total mobile revenue passed $8 billion, with Optus around $6 billion. VHA, the entity created with the merger of Vodafone and Hutchison, generated revenue close to $4.5 billion.

The release of 4G/LTE mobile broadband and increased uptake by consumers and businesses will certainly ease the issue in the short term, but as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed. Mobile data usage increased by nearly 80% year-on-year to mid-2012 with nearly seven terabytes downloaded over the air in a three-month period.

The second tier market has been dominated by industry consolidation, a process that is set to continue over coming years. Moving towards a structurally separated regulatory environment with a NBN at the horizon, size really does matter.

The other important development has been Telstra’s aggressive activities to increase their market shares and this has been hurting the 2nd tier market. This is clearly reflected in this year data, total revenues are under $3 billion, well under 10% of the total telecoms market in Australia. This again shows the dominance of in particular Telstra. This year we have left Vodafone out of the 2nd tier market segment, but for comparison reasons there are still references to them.

OTT - the new normal for the industry

It has become clear that OTT is ‘the new normal’ for the telecoms industry - with the emerging all-IP networks; telecoms services are basically moving to new business models. These services are seen as a threat by the traditional telcos and so far they have been unable to come back with a competitive reaction. The more likely scenario will be is that the telcos will remain in the access space and will offer wholesale services to the OTT and Apps providers as well as to an increasingly growing number of companies and sectors that are relying on the digital economy. Services here include data centres, cloud computing, data storage, content delivery and other value added infrastructure services.

Mobile and fixed infrastructure will increasing merge and in the end a fibre based network will support hundreds of thousands of smaller and bigger mobile stations delivering services to end users. It is estimated that mobile capacity need to grow a thousand fold over the next decade to cope with customer demand.

The Australian telecommunications market will change dramatically over the next ten years. Accelerated by government policies these changes will be driven by a total overhaul of the industry.

This will also transform the industry and developments such as cloud computing, M2M and Big Data will be accelerated. The Over-the-Top (OTT) players are also becoming more and more prominent in the telecoms industry and this will start blurring some of the borders between infrastructure, IT and applications,

The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also start to play a more important role. The question remains how successful the telcos will be in retail space.

They will have to decide where they want to play. Infrastructure will largely move to NBN Co, its contractors (eg, Telstra) and a few backhaul providers. Companies also have the opportunity to become the ICT providers to those other sectors. The larger sectors, in particular, will create a sizeable demand for value-added infrastructure services. The first of such contracts signed in the healthcare industry offers glimpses of such a future.

All of this will assist the industry to broaden itself and double its size to around $80 billion by 2020.

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