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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Oct. 17, 2012 - 105 Pages
Table of Contents- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Germany Agriculture SWOT
- Germany Business Environment SWOT
- Supply & Demand Analysis
- Germany Grains Outlook
- Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Germany Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Germany Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Germany Livestock Outlook
- Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Germany Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Germany Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Germany Dairy Outlook
- Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Germany Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Germany Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Germany Sugar Outlook
- Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Germany Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa: Momentum Waning
- Coffee: Temporary Rally
- Cotton: Forming A Base
- Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex
- Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Update
- Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere
- Corn: Looking The Weakest
- Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported
- Rice: Still The Underperformer
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
- Upstream Analysis
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
- Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Prepared Food
- Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016
- Table: Snack Foods, 2009-2016
- Table: Pasta, 2009-2016
- Table: Dairy, 2009-2016
- Table: Meat, 2009-2016
- Table: Fish, 2009-2016
- Table: Oils And Fats, 2009-2016
- Drink
- Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: MGR Sales Value By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Country Snapshot
- Table: Germany’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
- Table: Germany’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Germany’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Germany’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- y affects this year’s prediction.
AbstractBMI View: Although the short-term risks facing the German grains and livestock sector have promptedus to slightly downgrade our forecasts for 2012/13, we continue to see strong prospects for growth inthese subsectors over our forecast period to 2016. In the grains sector, we see corn as a significantbeneficiary of Germany’s increasing focus on biofuels and the comparatively higher profitability of thecrop against wheat and barley. We believe poultry will continue to lead the way in the livestock sector asthe healthier image and lower price of the meat will attract more consumers. The sugar industry is set tobenefit from the abolition of the sugar production quotas by 2015.
Key Forecasts
Corn production growth to 2015/16: 10.6% to 5.2mn tonnes. Corn yields have been improvingsignificantly in recent years as an emphasis on increased output has led farmers to adopt moreproductive practices. Biofuels will also be a main driver of crop production over the comingdecade.
Poultry consumption growth to 2016: 6.6% to 1.7mn tonnes. We expect poultry consumptionto gain ground as consumers are attracted to the healthier image and lower price of poultry meat.
Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 28.5% to 4.6mn tonnes. The abolition of the sugarproduction quotas by 2015 is likely to encourage farmers to plant more sugar.
2012 real GDP growth: 0.4%, down from 3% in 2011 and predicted to average 1.7% from 2012until 2016.
Consumer price inflation: 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012, slightly down from 2.3% y-o-yin 2011.
Industry Developments
We expect pork supply in Europe to tighten significantly in the coming years and have revised ouroutlook for production in the EU on the back of data from Eurostat showing the pig herd declining in2011. We forecast pork production in the EU-27 to fall by 2.0% and 1.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively.The surge in grain prices, especially for wheat, corn and barley, which are used in the EU for feed, isputting significant pressure on farmers’ margins. This is especially the case as retail pork prices have notincreased by much in recent months, while global lean hog prices declined by 17.4% in one day in Auguston the back of oversupply and disease concerns in the US.
Losing Pigs
EU-27 – Pig Herd (‘000 head)
Source: Eurostat
German dairy firm DMK said in August 2012 it is seeking to grow the Sunval brand in Europe and otherinternational markets. Local food manufacturer Sunval’s production facilities, products and saleschannels perfectly match with DMK’s baby food division, which comprises brands such as Milram andHumana. Sunval’s sales increased by 36% y-o-y to EUR37mn (US$45.6mn) in 2011.
US-based sugar producer Imperial Sugar intends to extend its sweetener business and is looking todevelop partnerships with companies in Europe. Imperial Sugar was acquired by NetherlandsbasedLouis Dreyfus Commodities in May 2012, which is expected to provide the backing it needs foran extension in Europe.
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