Mozambique Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 10, 2012 - 65 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mozambique Agriculture SWOT
Mozambique Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Mozambique Livestock Outlook
Table: Mozambique Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Mozambique Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Mozambique Sugar Outlook
Table: Mozambique Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Mozambique Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Mozambique Grains Outlook
Table: Mozambique Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Mozambique Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Momentum Waning
Coffee: Temporary Rally
Cotton: Forming A Base
Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex
Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere
Corn: Looking The Weakest
Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported
Rice: Still The Underperformer
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Africa Machinery Outlook
Africa GM Seeds Outlook
Table: Select Countries – Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Mozambique – Food Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Sugar Confectionery, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Meat, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Preserved Fish, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Snack Foods, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Sweet Biscuits, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Bread Products, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Pasta, 2010-2016
Drink
Table: Mozambique – Soft Drinks, 2010-2016
Table: Mozambique – Alcoholic Drinks, 2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mozambique – Mass Grocery Retail, 2010-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Mozambique's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Mozambique's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Mozambique's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

BMI View: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Mozambique still requires investment of US$3.1bnbetween 2013 and 2017 to ensure that the country is self-sufficient in food. Of the utmost importance isboosting agricultural productivity by improving irrigation, and introducing technology to small-scalefarmers. The government has also highlighted the need to improve food and nutritional safety andfacilitating more agricultural reform. Our optimism about Mozambique's agriculture industry largelyhinges on the government's continued support for the sector.

Key Forecasts

Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 48.2% to reach 489,000 tonnes. As one ofMozambique's key cash crops, long-term sugar production growth will reflect an increase inexport-driven demand and the opening up of new markets; output is also expected to benefitfrom investment in biofuels.

Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 32.2% to 56,700 tonnes. Among the factorsunderpinning our strong growth expectations are Mozambique's expanding population and thecountry's rising standards of living. Mozambique's population is predicted to grow by 11.7%over the five years to 2016, to 26.7mn; GDP per capita is forecast to increase from US$634 in2012 to US$986 in 2016.

Corn production growth to 2016: 14.8% to 2.40mn tonnes. Corn will remain one ofMozambique's most important food crops; it will also retain its status as an important source offeed for poultry and livestock. However, despite benefiting from efforts to raise productionlevels, the crop will remain vulnerable to variations in rainfall.

Real GDP growth: 7.5% in 2012 (up from 7.3% in 2011); projected to average 8.6% over thefive years to 2016.

Key Views And Developments

A group of Chinese businessmen from Hubei province have signed a US$250mn deal with the authoritiesfrom the state-owned Lower Limpopo Irrigation Scheme to help to develop the region's water irrigationand boost productivity within an area of agricultural land covering 12,000 hectares (ha). The initiative ismostly being undertaken with the view towards increasing wheat and rice production from the currentlevel of 3.0 tonnes/ha to about 10 tonnes/ha. The partnership will be significant given that the LowerLimpopo system is the second largest irrigation scheme in the country.

South African sugar producer TSB is building a sugar mill in the Mopeia district of Mozambique. Theplantation will be nearly 30,000ha and produce nearly US$400,000 worth of sugar for the domestic andexport markets. By 2018, it aims to employ more than 30,000 people and produce 500,000 tonnes ofsugar per year, making it the largest sugar-producing factory in Mozambique.

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