Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q3 2011

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 22, 2012 - 107 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Business Environment SWOT
Indonesia Mobile Business Environment SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
Indonesia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts
ARPU
Table: ARPU Historical Data And Forecasts (IDR)
Fixed Line
Table: Fixed-Line Historical Data And Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Market Overview
Table: Number Of Mobile Subscribers (Q411)
Subscriber Divisions
Prepaid
Postpaid
ARPU
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview
Table: Telkomsel
Table: Indosat
Table: XL Axiata
Table: Bakrie Telecom
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011
Country Outlook
SMS
Table: Telkomsel SMS Messages Sent (bn) Vs Revenue Per SMS (IDR)
Mobile Broadband
Mobile TV
Other Content
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2011
Fixed Line
Table: Fixed Network Connections, 2008-2010 ('000)
Telkom: Key Fixed-Line Network Developments, 2009-2011
Fixed Wireless
Table: Major Fixed Wireless Operators – Number Of Subscribers (mn)
Broadband
IPTV
Submarine Cable Deployments
Table: Telkom – Key Submarine Cable Developments, 2009-2011
WiMAX
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2009
Regulatory Environment
Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Telecommunications Law
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players
Table: Key Operators Financial Indicators, 2004-2010
Company Monitor
Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn)
Operator Profiles
Telkom
Telkomsel
Indosat
XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources

Abstract

BMI has revised its forecasts for Indonesia's mobile communications market in light of new Q311 data from Telkomsel, XL Axiata and Axis, which recorded sharp increases in their customer bases. Secondplaced Indosat recorded poor growth in Q411. However, we now believe the market served 268.8mn subscribers at the end of 2011. Much of that growth is attributed to operators' success in delivering affordable mobile broadband services over enhanced 2G networks as well as 3G platforms and meeting demand for portable multimedia devices, such as smartphones (Apple's iPhone and Research In Motion's BlackBerry are popular) and mobile computers.

However, while there is some improvement in the contribution to revenue and ARPUs by non-voice services, bottom-line revenue and ARPUs are not growing very quickly, if at all. This is because operators are focused on voice-centric low-cost prepaid services and short-term price promotions. These certainly help operators to grow their customer bases, but it is likely that many of these customers will cease using the services once their credit is used up. We therefore believe that a substantial proportion of the overall number of registered customers is technically inactive, and unnecessarily weighing on ARPUs.

With Saudi Telecommunications Company (STC) having taken a more proactive role in growing Axis' mobile business in 2011, and with the newly-merged Smart Telecom/Mobile-8 entity Smartfren looking to grow its small user base in 2012, it is clear that the urge to compete on price will not end soon and customers will continue to be signed up in substantial numbers. This is not sustainable and we expect further consolidation.BMI expects there to be 431.8mn mobile subscribers by 2016, a penetration rate of 169.9%.

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