Rheumatoid Arthritis Market Forecast

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Sep. 8, 2011


Table of Contents

Please Note: Due to the brevity and/or nature of the content posted, there is no table of contents available for this report.

Abstract

This interactive model includes 2010-20 patient-numbers and sales forecasts for traditional and biologic disease-modifying drugs in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK).

Introduction

The launch of novel oral drugs and reformulations of current brands are expected to fuel growth across the seven major markets, rising from $12bn in 2010 to $18bn by 2020. TNF inhibitors will remain dominant market players, but the growing enthusiasm for non-TNF biologics at earlier lines of therapy is predicted to continue over the next decade and serves as an additional growth driver.

Scope
  • Gain insight into the RA competitive landscape and assess commercial opportunity using 10 year patient-based forecasts with clear methodology.
  • Access current and future patient-numbers and expand knowledge on potential future events that may impact these.
  • Evaluate existing and potential future brand dynamics by line of therapy; from first- through to fourth-line and beyond.
  • Enhance understanding of future product potential, with key opinion leader views of late stage kinase inhibitors, such as tofacitinib and FosD.
  • Gauge the anticipated impact of reformulations on patient switching and the subsequent effect on total brands sales.
Highlights

With two novel kinase inhibitors forecast to launch for rheumatoid arthritis and key brand reformulations set to enter the market over the next decade, Datamonitor’s patient-based forecast shows that the market will grow to reach $18bn in 2020.

Despite news of deaths in a Phase III trial of Pfizer’s tofacitinib, physicians remain upbeat on this potential game-changer, stating that while safety is a concern for new drugs, the deaths mirror those seen in the era prior to biologics. Datamonitor forecasts favorable uptake of tofacitinib, reaching sales of $1.2bn by 2020 in the major markets.

Opinion leaders verify rising interest to adopt non-TNF biologics earlier in the algorithm, due to familiarity and more experience of their side-effects. With Bristol-Myers Squibb gaining US approval of subcutaneous Orencia (abatacept) in July 2011, this reformulation adds positively to its lifecycle and it will benefit from this projected trend.

Reasons to Purchase
  • What impact has the deaths in a Phase III trial of tofactinib had on its potential future uptake across the seven major rheumatoid arthritis markets?
  • What is the future outlook in terms of patients and sales for 2009 market entrants Cimzia and Simponi and how does this compare to older TNF brands?
  • How will the launch of subcutaneous formulations of marketed intravenous drugs Orencia and Actemra change their usage and impact future brand sales?
  • How will first-, second-, third- and fourth-line and beyond biologic brand dynamics change in the rheumatoid arthritis markets over the coming decade?
  • How will each of the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) evolve in terms of patients from 2010 to 2020?
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