Commercial and Pipeline Insight: Vaccines for Adults and the Elderly - New blockbuster opportunities ahead

Published by: Datamonitor

Published: Jul. 2, 2008 - 161 Pages


Table of Contents

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
About the Infectious Diseases analysis team
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Objective of the analysis
Scope of the analysis
Datamonitor insight into the vaccines market for adults and elderly
Contributing experts
Related reports
Upcoming related reports
CHAPTER 2 VACCINES FOR ADULTS AND ELDERLY - MARKET OVERVIEW
Adult vaccines - the next blockbusters?
Currently recommended vaccines
Routine vaccinations
Booster vaccinations for adults and elderly
Vaccines for catch-up and high-risk populations
Market influencers
The increasing age of the population is a key driver for adult vaccination
Challenges are associated with the lack of homogeneity in the immune status of adults and elderly
New technologies better suited to vaccine design for the elderly are emerging
It will be challenging to achieve high turn-out rates for vaccination among adults and elderly
Increasing awareness of vaccine-preventable diseases will result in greater interest in vaccination
A private market could emerge for adult vaccines
Strategies for maximum market penetration
CHAPTER 3 PNEUMOCOCCAL VACCINATION IN ADULTS AND ELDERLY
Summary
Disease background
Epidemiology
Invasive pneumococcal disease is associated with high incidence and death rates
The elderly are at high risk of infection and show highest death rates associated with invasive pneumococcal disease
The introduction of childhood vaccination with Prevnar has also reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes in the elderly
Recommendations
Coverage
Comparator therapy: Pneumovax 23 (Merck & Co/Sanofi Aventis)
Unmet needs
Pipeline vaccines
Prevnar 13 (Wyeth)
Vaccine profile
Clinical trial data
Marketing factors
Satisfaction of unmet needs
Potential role in boosting
Datamonitor vaccine assessment summary
GlaxoSmithKline's pneumococcal conjugate candidates
Intercell's pneumococcal vaccine
Market opportunity and forecast
Pneumococcal vaccination in elderly and adults has a significant commercial potential
Assumptions made for forecasting the pneumococcal vaccines market
Country forecasts
Six major markets
US
5EU
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
CHAPTER 4 ZOSTER VACCINES
Summary
Disease background
Course of disease - shingles occurs upon reactivation of varicella zoster virus
Post-herpetic neuralgia is the most concerning complication of shingles
Epidemiology
In the western major markets, around 2 million people suffer from herpes zoster infections every year
So far, there is no clear evidence of an increase in shingles incidence following routine infant varicella vaccination; however, more data are needed
Vaccination recommendations
Cost-efficacy considerations
Comparator therapy: Zostavax (Merck & Co)
Vaccine profile
Efficacy
Safety
Strengths and weaknesses
Unmet needs
Pipeline vaccines
Market opportunity and forecast
Historical sales performance
Assumptions made for forecasting the zoster vaccines market
Country forecasts
Six major markets
US
5EU
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
CHAPTER 5 BOOSTER VACCINES
Summary
Current situation
Recommended vaccines
Currently marketed vaccines
Future outlook
Existing booster indications may be rolled out to additional countries
New indications are likely to be added to the booster portfolio
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Literature
APPENDIX A
Forecasts
Forecast methodology
Datamonitor forecast methodology
Datamonitor's patient-based forecasting model
Limitations of the patient-based forecasting model
APPENDIX B - MARKET FORECAST DATA
Six major markets
US
5EU
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
APPENDIX C
Contributing experts
Report methodology
About Datamonitor
About Datamonitor Healthcare
About the Infectious Diseases analysis team
Key therapy team members
Holger Rovini, Head of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases
Hedwig Kresse, Senior Analyst, Infectious Diseases
Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Routine and booster immunizations for adults and elderly in the seven major markets, 2008
Table 2: Vaccination recommended for adults and elderly as catch-up or for risk groups only in the seven major markets, 2008
Table 3: Diseases linked to S. pneumoniae
Table 4: Recommendations for pneumococcal revaccination in adults and elderly in the seven major markets, 2008
Table 5: Pneumovax 23: key facts
Table 6: Prevnar 13 - Vaccine overview
Table 7: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage safety and efficacy trials in adults and elderly naïve to pneumococcal vaccination
Table 8: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage re-vaccination trials
Table 9: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage trials for simultaneous vaccination with Prevnar 13 and trivalent influenza vaccine
Table 10: GlaxoSmithKline pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidates - clinical trials in adults/elderly, 2008
Table 11: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines sales in adults and elderly summary - six major markets, 2007-2017
Table 12: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - US, 2007-2017
Table 13: Forecast pneumococcal vaccine sales in adults and elderly summary - 5EU, 2007-2017
Table 14: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - France, 2007-2017
Table 15: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - Germany, 2007-2017
Table 16: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - Italy, 2007-2017
Table 17: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly - summary - Spain, 2007-2017
Table 18: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - UK, 2007-2017
Table 19: Herpes zoster incidence in the US and 5EU
Table 20: Vaccination recommendations regarding varicella and herpes zoster in the seven major markets, 2006
Table 21: Zostavax: key facts
Table 22: Zoster vaccines - pipeline
Table 23: Zostavax market forecast - six major markets, 2007-2017
Table 24: Zostavax market forecast - US, 2007-2017
Table 25: Zostavax market forecast - 5EU, 2007-2017
Table 26: Zostavax market forecast - France, 2007-2017
Table 27: Zostavax market forecast - Germany, 2007-2017
Table 28: Zostavax market forecast - Italy, 2007-2017
Table 29: Zostavax market forecast - Spain, 2007-2017
Table 30: Zostavax market forecast - UK, 2007-2017
Table 31: Adolescent booster recommendations, seven major markets, 2008
Table 32: Adult booster recommendations, seven major markets, 2008
Table 33: Key marketed booster vaccines for adults and adolescents; 7MM, 2008
Table 34: Vaccine profiles for Adacel and Boostrix
Table 35: Six major markets pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 36: US pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 37: 5EU pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 38: France pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 39: Germany pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 40: Italy pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 41: Spain pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
Table 42: UK pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017
List of Figures
Figure 1: Market growth cycle for vaccines
Figure 2: Population aged 65 years and older in the seven major markets, 1998-2018
Figure 3: Strategies for maximum market penetration of the adult vaccination market
Figure 4: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in the elderly in the seven major markets, 2007
Figure 5: Incidence of disease and case-fatality rate (CFR) of invasive pneumococcal disease by age groups in Scotland, 1999-2001
Figure 6: Pneumococcal disease - incidence and mortality of invasive pneumococcal disease in the US, 2004
Figure 7: Impact of Prevnar on incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in children and elderly, in the US, 1998/99 versus 2003
Figure 8: Case and death rates linked to invasive pneumococcal disease caused by all serotypes of S. pneumoniae by age group, in the US, 1999-2006
Figure 9: Recommendations for adult pneumococcal vaccination in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure 10: Pneumococcal vaccination coverage by age group in the US, 1997-2006
Figure 11: Pneumovax 23 - strengths and weaknesses
Figure 12: Unmet needs in pneumococcal vaccination
Figure 13: Prevnar 13 - study design of re-vaccination trials
Figure 14: Pneumococcal booster strategies
Figure 15: Prevnar 13 - SWOT analysis
Figure 16: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by country - six major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 17: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - six major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 18: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - six major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 19: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - US, 2007-2017
Figure 20: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - US, 2007-2017
Figure 21: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - 5EU, 2007-2017
Figure 22: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - 5EU, 2007-2017
Figure 23: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - France, 2007-2017
Figure 24: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - France, 2007-2017
Figure 25: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - Germany, 2007-2017
Figure 26: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - Germany, 2007-2017
Figure 27: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - Italy, 2007-2017
Figure 28: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - Italy, 2007-2017
Figure 29: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - Spain, 2007-2017
Figure 30: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - Spain, 2007-2017
Figure 31: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - UK, 2007-2017
Figure 32: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - UK, 2007-2017
Figure 33: Varicella zoster virus infection - disease progression
Figure 34: Herpes zoster incidence by age group in Madrid, Spain, 1997-2004
Figure 35: Varicella and herpes zoster incidence in various age groups in the US, 1992-2002
Figure 36: Zostavax - efficacy in preventing herpes zoster infection by age group
Figure 37: Zostavax - efficacy in preventing post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) in patients who developed herpes zoster infection by age group
Figure 38: Zostavax - duration of efficacy for preventing herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) following vaccination
Figure 39: Zostavax - sales 2006-Q1 2008
Figure 40: Zostavax market forecast by country - six major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 41: Zostavax market forecast - six major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 42: Zostavax market forecast - US, 2007-2017
Figure 43: Zostavax market forecast - 5EU, 2007-2017
Figure 44: Zostavax market forecast - France, 2007-2017
Figure 45: Zostavax market forecast - Germany, 2007-2017
Figure 46: Zostavax market forecast - Italy, 2007-2017
Figure 47: Zostavax market forecast - Spain, 2007-2017
Figure 48: Zostavax market forecast - UK, 2007-2017
Figure 49: Sanofi Pasteur - booster vaccine sales, 2002-07
Figure 50: Pertussis notifications in England and Wales for over 5 year-olds, 1999-2007
Figure 51: Datamonitor's patient-based vaccine forecasting model - influence factors


Abstract

Introduction

Vaccines have re-emerged as successful revenue generators for Big Pharma, with adults and the elderly now increasingly coming into focus as the next big opportunity in this sector. An aging population, rising disease awareness and new technologies to overcome the scientific hurdles linked to the weakened immune response in the elderly are all contributing factors.

Scope
  • Assessment of pneumococcal and zoster disease incidence, in-depth analysis of existing vaccines and key pipeline compounds
  • Review of current and expected future immunization guidelines as well as existing and forecast immunization rates
  • 10-year sales forecast on a population basis for Zostavax, Prevnar 13 and Pneumovax-23
  • Overview of current booster vaccine recommendations and commercial landscape with analysis of future market drivers
Highlights

Following the great success of Wyeth's heptavalent pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar in the infant sector, Datamonitor believes that Prevnar 13 could achieve blockbuster status in adults and elderly alone, if a superior efficacy compared to Pneumovax 23 is confirmed in ongoing clinical trials.

Merck & Co's Zostavax is the only available vaccine for the prevention of shingles and will continue to enjoy a monopoly in this promising market due to a lack of pipeline competitors. Datamonitor predicts peak sales between $1.5 and $2 billion.

Sanofi Pasteur and GSK are the leading players in the booster vaccines market. Overall, Datamonitor predicts significant growth potential in this sector, based on both geographic expansion of existing booster indications as well as the potential introduction of additional booster vaccinations for new indications.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Size the available market opportunities and identify the unmet medical needs when immunizing an elderly patient population
  • Gain insight into key opinion leaders' thinking on vaccines for the elderly
  • Understand and identify the key challenges to achieving a better penetration of the next big opportunity in the vaccine area
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