UAE: Country Economic Forecast: 20 Feb 2012

UAE: Country Economic Forecast: 20 Feb 2012


February 20, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6824030
License type:
Online Download      US $175.00
Global Site License      US $438.00
Economic activity picked up slightly in January according to the PMI survey, but growth remains weaker than in H1 2011 due mainly to the deteriorating global outlook. Oil production stayed at recent highs in January and could remain at these levels to offset declining Iranian oil exports. GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3.1% in 2012 from the estimated 4.1% in 2011. Growth will be depressed by the projected weakening in world trade and activity, by the return of Libyan oil production, by lower oil prices and by a more conservative approach to government spending in Abu Dhabi. The main downside risks to the forecast are further upheaval in the Eurozone and problems in refinancing Dubai's debt. Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, but the annual inflation rate turned slightly positive at 0.2% compared with -0.1% in November. A 0.6% rise in food costs was more than offset by falls elsewhere, led by a 0.3% decline in housing and utility costs. Domestic pressures remain weak and there is an ample supply of housing. External factors will also continue to be more favourable. But inflation will edge up a little to 1.4% in 2012 from 0.9% in 2011 due to less favourable base effects, loose monetary policy and rising wages. The current account surplus is forecast to narrow to some 11.3% of GDP in 2012 from an estimated 14.3% of GDP in 2011 due to less favourable oil trends.



More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - SwitzerlandThe latest national accounts release suggested slightly different growth dynamics in 2013 than we had previously assumed. First, quarterly GDP growth ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Norway by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - NorwayMainland GDP, which excludes the oil sector, grew at a healthy pace (0.6% on the quarter) in Q4 2013, taking its ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Algeria by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - AlgeriaGDP growth is expected to pick up to about 3.5% this year, despite political uncertainties, as gas output and exports recover ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - KuwaitAgainst a background of improved political stability, aided by the non-participation of the opposition in parliamentary elections, there has been steady ...
See all reports like this >>