The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP edged down 0.1% on the quarter in Q2 2013. The initial flash estimate confirmed that external demand and investment were weak but consumer spending was also subdued. The latter was a surprise given the strength seen in the retail sales, consumer confidence and employment data, and we expect an upward revision to the private consumption data in September. Looking ahead, healthy domestic economic conditions should help to offset weak external demand. The unemployment rate actually declined in Q2 for the first quarter since Q3 2011. And the latest Riksbank business survey suggests that job cuts in most sectors have come to an end and that companies are now cautiously optimistic about future developments. Overall, we expect GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.9% in 2014. In early July, the Riksbank decided to hold interest rates at 1% as they continued to balance below-target inflation against high household debt levels. We expect interest rates to start rising in Q3 2014. Meanwhile, the risks to the forecast remain skewed to the downside. Although the threat of a Eurozone break-up has receded since mid-2012, a sharp rise in uncertainty could easily derail recent gains in confidence. In addition, the expected recovery in exports could be limited by a potentially stronger SEK, as we expect the Riksbank to start tightening monetary policy well before the ECB