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Sudan: Country Economic Forecast: 15 Nov 2011

5 Pages Oxford Economics November 15, 2011 SKU: OFE6673373

Both politically and economically, Sudan has taken a turn for the worse since the south seceded in July. Tensions between the Muslim north and the Christian south have risen over religion, oil and border disputes. And President Bashir has stated that Sudan will become an Islamic state, which will fuel uncertainty for people from the south now living in the north. And the disputes between the two countries over border territory and the division of oil revenues may get worse. The split in the country has thrown up immense challenges for the north even though it has most of the oil pipelines and refineries, as the south has 75% of the oil reserves. An amicable resolution over the oil industry is vital for prosperity in both countries. GDP has grown strongly in recent years on rising oil output (up 6% in 2010 to over 500,000 b/d), high government spending and FDI inflows from China. As a result, we estimate GDP growth at 6.5% in 2010. But oil output has fallen to 420,000 b/d since the split, FDI has suffered and food shortages have emerged. As a result, GDP growth is likely to be much lower this year - we expect 1-2% but the IMF sees small declines in both 2011 and 2012. And inflation, over 20% in September (60% in the south), will remain in double digits, driven by high oil and food prices and a weaker Sudanese pound. High oil revenues swung the current account into small surplus in 2010, which then rose further in H1 2011. But lower oil receipts may see a return to deficit in 2012.

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Sudan: Country Economic Forecast: 15 Nov 2011

Oxford Economics
November 15, 2011

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