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Libya: Country Economic Forecast: 25 Jan 2012

Oxford Economics
January 25, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6784626

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Countries covered: Libya

Despite widespread celebration at the end of Colonel Gaddafi's 42 years of dictatorial rule and relief that the conflict did not split the country, the way forward remains extremely murky. The NTC has promised elections for June 2012, but it faces a huge challenge in uniting the country. The immediate task is to disarm the numerous militias - otherwise the situation could degenerate into civil war. The elections in June will lead to a Public National Conference and an interim government, followed by a new constitution, and then fresh elections. But the timetable may prove to be over-ambitious and the NTC now faces mounting criticism from the people. After so many years of dictatorship, the road to democracy is likely to be bumpy, as is the case in Iraq and Egypt. With most formal business activity having come to a virtual standstill and oil output estimated to have fallen by 70% in 2011, we still think that GDP fell by about 40% last year. But oil output is recovering quite strongly, reaching 800,000 b/d in December, half the pre-crisis level. However, given the major political uncertainties, which will deter FDI, business activity and tourism, the overall recovery will take some time. Based on latest oil output trends, we now forecast GDP growth of about 30% in 2012, followed by 12% in 2013. The 70% slump in oil exports will have led to a small current account deficit in 2011. But assuming that the oil industry continues to recover, rising oil exports and still-high oil prices could see a return to surplus in 2012.

Libya:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:: Domestic demand; Private consumption; Fixed investment; Stockbuilding (% of GDP); Government consumption; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; Consumer prices; Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP); Government budget (% of GDP); Short-term interest rates (%); Long-term interest rates (%); Exchange rate (vs. US dollar); Exchange rate (vs. euro)
3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:: Contributions to GDP growth; Monthly industrial output; Unemployment rate; Retail sales; Prices and earnings; Consumption and investment; Government balance and debt; GDP and industrial production; Monetary base and bond yields
5. Background Information on the country: One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
6. Key Facts on the country: Map of the country; Key political facts; Long-term economic and social development; Structure of GDP by output; Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook; Corruption perceptions index- latest year; Structural economic indicators; Destination of goods' exports -prior years; Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

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Libya: Country Economic Forecast: 25 Jan 2012

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