Kuwait: Country Economic Forecast: 07 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 7, 2012
5 Pages - SKU: OFE6799194
Countries covered: Kuwait

A victory for the loose Islamist-led opposition in this month's snap parliamentary elections may only deepen the policymaking deadlock. But there is a chance that the opposition and cabinet, which is appointed by the Prime Minster, unite and push for bigger increases in government spending. In 2011, the fiscal surplus widened to over 33% of GDP thanks to high oil prices and rising oil production. A decline in the surplus to 31% of GDP is forecast in calendar 2012. Oil production edged up further in January and was some 14% higher than a year ago. But we expect output to stabilise at this level given weaker global activity, the revival in Libyan output, a tighter OPEC quota and output close to capacity. Oil investment fell in 2011, notably in Q4. The pace of economic activity is forecast to continue to slow, with GDP growth put at 3.9% in 2012 after an estimated 4.8% in 2011. As well as slower oil production growth, the global slowdown, weaker oil prices and political instability will all undermine activity and confidence. Inflation hit a 19-month low of 3.1% in December. Inflationary pressures will remain relatively restrained by the downward trend in global food and commodity prices as well as subdued money and credit growth. But base effects and low interest rates will leave inflation averaging 3.9% in 2012 after 4.8% in 2011. Lower oil prices will drive a narrowing in the current account surplus to some 34% of GDP this year from about 40% in 2011.

More International Trade reports by Oxford Economics

Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - LebanonHopes for economic revival during 2014 have been dashed by regional and domestic political events, and indicators continue to point to ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Australia by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - AustraliaFalling commodity prices and the prospect of weaker Chinese demand has led to a modest downgrade to GDP growth in 2015 ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Poland by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - PolandThe NBP surprised the markets by implementing a 50bp cut at its October meeting (the consensus call had been for a ...
Country Economic Forecasts - Romania by Oxford Economics
Country Economic Forecasts - RomaniaRomania's economic outlook remains reasonably solid although recent monthly data show the economy has lost some momentum. The expansion in both ...
See all reports like this >>

More Kuwait International Trade reports

Country Forecast Kuwait November 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Forecasts focus on the key factors affecting a country's political and economic outlook and its business environment five years ahead. Each report covers an ...
Country Report Kuwait November 2014 by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...
Country Risk Service Kuwait November 2014 Updater by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Risk Service is a comprehensive two-year forecasting service that monitors risks in 100 key emerging markets. It is designed for commercial bankers, institutional investors ...
Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q1 2015 by Business Monitor International
Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q1 2015Core ViewsWe expect the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over 2015and 2016, and retain our forecast for real GDP ...
See all reports like this >>

More Kuwait reports

D&B Country Report: Kuwait by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>



    Online Download  USD 175  
    Global Site License  USD 438  
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

Share this report

    Other tasks

    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!