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Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing: 24 Feb 2012

14 Pages Oxford Economics February 24, 2012 SKU: OFE3877017

The Brazilian central bank is expected to cut its key Selic rate by another 50bp in early March, which would make a cumulative reduction of 250bp since August. Both the subsequent moderation in inflation and the deterioration in the global background since mid 2011 justify an easing in policy but in recent months not only has global sentiment improved (albeit far from recovered) but the domestic indicators that were fragile in Q3 and October have turned much more positive. This latter factor might have led more cautious central banks to adopt a “wait and see” approach given that inflation is still well above the mid-point of the target range, but the Brazilian authorities seem much more willing to take risks with inflation in their efforts to support growth than their counterparts in Mexico and Chile. For example, in the latter, after starting to reverse its previous tightening policy in January, when it cut rates by 25bp, the Chilean central bank then “paused” in February and is expected to do so again in March judging this to be the correct course in the light of relatively high inflation, a still healthy labour market and a stronger than expected domestic economy.

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Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing: 24 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics
February 24, 2012

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