Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
... supporting next year's growth. Fiscal and monetary policies will provide a tailwind for growth, with a fiscal loosening in 2025 and 2026 and the Riksbank likely to cut the policy rate once more this year, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
... a demand-led pick-up in activity, but the ongoing fiscal consolidation will be a drag on growth, offset by looser monetary policy. Key downside risks to our outlook relate to new trade barriers and policy uncertainty. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... previously thought. The new data also significantly revised down Q1 growth. This has resulted in us lowering our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 1.9ppts to 0.1% and raising our 2026 forecast by 0.5ppts to 1.9%. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... still remarkable rate but below the 10% reported last month. Meanwhile, we've raised our projection for 2026 to -2.6% from -4.3% last month. The Q1 growth number generates a very strong carry-over effect: even flat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
... pensioners with effect later this year, which we think will temporarily boost GDP growth. A stronger end to 2025 also lifted our forecast for 2026 by 0.2ppts to 2.3% due to an improved carry-over effect. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... will grow by 0.2% this year and have raised our projection for 2026 by 0.1ppt to a 1% expansion. We think some household energy tax cuts could trigger a slightly more frontloaded recovery next year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
... throughout Q2, and ECB rate cuts having a stronger positive impact on economic activity than under our baseline. However, we continue to expect headwinds from lower trade and a stronger euro to outweigh these factors. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... unchanged at 0.5% because we still see no signs of the economy gaining momentum. In 2026, we still expect GDP growth will increase marginally to 0.7% as domestic uncertainty will continue to discourage economic activity. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... is more insulated from the trade war with the US than other European countries, and its strong tourism flows, resilient labour market and consumer spending will continue to prop up activity, despite the persistent uncertainty ... Read More
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Meat Import & Export (UK) - Industry Report
... failure • Seek out the most attractive acquisition opportunities • Analyse industry trends • Benchmark their own financial performance Using an exclusive methodology, a quick glance of this Meat Import & Export (UK) report will ... Read More
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Furnishing Importers (UK) - Industry Report
... the most attractive acquisition opportunities • Analyse industry trends • Benchmark their own financial performance Using an exclusive methodology, a quick glance of this Furnishing Importers (UK) report will tell you the companies that have ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... be the main driver of growth, which we expect to continue throughout this year. However, a cooling labour market poses a key downside risk. We think growth momentum will be maintained in 2026, when we ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
... and beyond, in line with tentatively encouraging high-frequency data. However, firms' sentiment remains subdued as consumer caution is set to keep a lid on domestic demand and weak demand from key trading partners will prevent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
... that economic momentum will gradually build over the coming years, a substantial tightening of fiscal policy, softer growth in consumer spending, weak external demand, and elevated trade policy uncertainty are likely to prevent a stronger ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
... but energy and labour market shortages serve as a drag. Peace talks have yielded no results and the war with Russia is escalating and looks likely to spill over into 2026. This poses downside risks ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
... real wage growth and a ramp-up of the Next Generation EU spending. But as the external environment is set to improve only gradually, we think that the sequential pace of growth will not pick up ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
... unchanged at 1.2% for 2025 and 1% for 2026. Swiss GDP grew by 0.8% q/q in Q1 2025, 0.1ppt above the flash estimate. Growth was driven mainly by the services sector and the pharmaceutical industry. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... by 0.1ppt to 1.5%. We've increased our extraction investment forecast after petroleum companies revised their planned investments for this next year. The remainder of our forecast assumptions remain broadly the same as the last month. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
... 2025 by 0.4ppts to 3.1% due to a better-than-expected start to this year and standard data revisions. The external sector continues to drive growth despite international trade tensions, although some cooling is expected in goods. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
... in industry and construction, while services stabilized. More recent data point to some upside risks to our forecast of a flat second quarter and will likely result in some revision of GDP growth this year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
... driver, while net trade will be a drag. An escalation in trade tensions, a weaker labour market, and households saving rather than spending income gains present key risks. We expect growth of 2.5% in 2025. Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
... quite strong uptick in production. However, we attribute much of this uptick to US firms attempting to front-run tariffs by bringing forward orders, indicating that it is not a sustainable foundation for further upwards momentum. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
... criteria in the European Central Bank’s Convergence Report in early June. Although we expect euro accession to support the Bulgarian economy in the long term, managing public confidence during the transition may pose some difficulties. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... demand for Belgian-produced inputs for other countries' US-bound exports. Moreover, trade uncertainty will make businesses reluctant to invest. We expect inflation will average 1.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with tariffs helping the disinflationary ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
... including fiscal policy being tightened significantly and the lagged impact of past interest rate rises continuing to emerge, have been supplemented by the impact of US trade policy. We therefore expect the pace of UK ... Read More
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