Category: International Trade
Europe International Trade
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How Tariff Threats Are Impacting the European Print Services Market
This IDC Market Note looks at how the threat of tariffs is already impacting the print services market in Europe. Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Slovakia
... (11.5%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 5.4%, 6.4%, and 9.2%, respectively, in 2025. Three major cities in Slovakia accounted for 38.8% of the country’s population and contributed 52.1% of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
... and 1.1% next. Extreme trade policy uncertainty and US tariffs will impact external demand and investment. We expect price pressures to continue giving way gradually, with inflation averaging 3.6% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
... of pharmaceuticals from Denmark in late Q2. Exceptional business uncertainty will also weigh on investment planning more than we expected last month, so we have lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 1.6%. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
... the adverse global environment. Spain stands to be more insulated from the trade war with the US than other European countries, and a strong tourism sector and consumer spending will continue to prop up activity. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
... 2026. This stability reflects that GDP grew by the expected 0.2% q/q in Q1, that our tariff assumptions haven't changed, and that the new German government, having entered office, hasn't yet revealed any policy changes. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
... over the year following data revisions. However, a more challenging growth outlook after US liberation day prompted us to revise annual GDP growth to 1.8% for 2025, which is 0.4ppts lower than our previous baseline. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
... on the latest information, we project an annual GDP contraction of 0.1%, which is 0.1ppt higher than our previous forecast, but we see risks skewed to the downside due to ongoing concerns regarding US tariffs. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
... We don't expect the trade war launched by the US to directly impact Estonia's growth much, but the indirect effects will be negative on the margin for the trade-intensive economy. Therefore, we have lowered our ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
... on demand from the rest of the world, while a prolonged period of trade policy uncertainty will hold back business investment. As a result, we have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 0.5ppts to 1.6% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
... mainly reflect the expected direct and indirect effects of US President Donald Trump's hostile trade policy. GDP growth of 2.9% y/y in 2024 also disappointed as it was lower than earlier official estimates of 3.4%-3.6%. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
... should provide a solid impetus this year. But the drag from US tariffs and the associated trade policy uncertainty will weigh on growth in the near term. As a result, we’ve also lowered our 2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
... 0.8% in 2026, from 1.2% in both years in last month's baseline. The downgrade reflects our expectation of substantially weaker global growth and the negative impact that the tariff-induced higher uncertainty will have on investment. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
... has triggered. Moreover, following a solid January, subsequent Q1 data indicated that sequential growth had eased relative to Q4 2024. Faster monetary policy easing, and German fiscal stimulus should offer support in 2026 and beyond, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
... war and the imposition of a 25% levy on cars the US imports from Hungary – a key export item for Hungary. While we think German stimulus will support activity, we do not expect it ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
... as US President Donald Trump's trade war escalates. But Croatia should remain one of the fastest-growing Eurozone economies this year and next, thanks to loose fiscal policy, a thriving tourism sector, and significant EU investment. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
... weigh on capital spending. The domestic economy will continue to be affected by ongoing fiscal consolidation, with rate cuts providing only a modest boost. We expect GDP will grow by 2% in 2025, but risks ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
... them more expensive, they will also affect demand for Belgian-produced inputs for other countries' US-bound exports. We expect inflation will average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, with tariffs helping the disinflationary process due ... Read More
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Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Poland
... and hotels activities (17.4%). In nominal terms, the three sectors are expected to grow by 7.6%, 8.0% and 7.4%, respectively, in 2025. According to GlobalData estimates, Warsaw city, Katowice, Krakow, Poznan and Gdansk accounted 38.8% ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
... fixed investment, following two consecutive quarters of contraction. We think that strong household balance sheets will mean that consumer spending growth will accelerate this year even with heightened inflationary pressures; however, continued trade policy uncertainty ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
... global trade war will weigh on goods exports, but it doesn't overly impact the outlook this year. Prolonged business uncertainty will increasingly weigh on growth in 2026, so we lowered our 2026 growth forecast by ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
... making them dearer, but they will also hit demand for Dutch-produced inputs into other countries' US-bound exports. We expect inflation to average 2.7% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, with the tariff hit to demand ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
... broadly match what was already part of our baseline. We've revised GDP growth for next year down slightly, from 1.0% to 0.8%, since global growth will be weaker and higher uncertainty will weigh on investment. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
... Irish exports of pharmaceutical products to the US will soon be subject to a 25% tariff, similar to other sectoral tariffs. We estimate this will reduce end-2026 Irish goods exports by 4%. Of course, uncertainty ... Read More
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Reciprocal Tariff Exemptions and International Responses
... suspended for 90 days for most countries (except China), this policy signals a return to "America First" principles, with tariffs becoming a central trade policy tool to reshape global supply chains and stimulate domestic manufacturing. ... Read More
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