Category: International Trade
Caribbean International Trade
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
... revised our short-term GDP growth forecast to 1.5% in 2025 due to lower growth expectations in the US post-liberation day tariffs. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains positive, as we believe this won't permanently affect growth. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba
... by 0.2 ppts to 4.1%. A stronger US economy than in our previous forecast and continued infrastructure investment contributed to our 2024 revisions. Meanwhile, a lull in infrastructure development will weigh on growth in 2025. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The
... in growth reflects the convergence of the economy towards its medium-term potential. Consistent with this view, we forecast inflation will settle at 2% in 2025 on the back of relatively weak consumption growth in 2024. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados
... as well as major construction projects, will sustain growth for the rest of this year and the start of next. Overnight tourist arrivals will likely rise by 14.1% in 2025. Plus, highway maintenance is budgeted ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla
... for the country's domain name '.ai' and the anticipated gradual improvement of global market conditions early next year as central banks cut interest rates. However, previously high interest rates are still having enduring effects, so ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda
... for Antigua and Barbuda by 1.4ppts to 2.8% y/y. We think the momentum from the post-pandemic recovery in tourism numbers will subside and growth levels will be closer to the economy's long-run potential growth rate. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada
... of Carriacou and Petit Martinique, will leave a lasting mark on the supply side of the economy. The impact on 2024 growth will be more severe. We've lowered our forecast for this year by 0.7ppts ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe
... decline to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, we don't anticipate a strong recovery in consumption as cost-of-living pressures remain and earnings growth will slow. Our long-term outlook is subdued reflecting the current trend ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
... 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico
... Federal funds from disaster-relief programs and pandemic stimulus that buoyed infrastructure projects and private consumption will continue to fade. Still, resilient demand from mainland US will likely remain a benefit to Puerto Rico's exports and tourism sector, driving growth in the island's economy. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica
... our 2024 GDP forecast for Dominica to 4.2% and expect robust growth of 3.1% next year. Our forecast reflects strong near-term prospects due a major recovery in tourism, high public investment, and strong Citizenship-by-Investment revenues. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis
... stay robust over the medium term due to recovering tourism receipts, high investment, and ongoing Citizenship-by-Investment revenues. Subsiding global inflation and falling oil prices have resulted in significant relief for the economy. But natural disasters ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba
... fuel shipments from Russia and Venezuela caused widespread blackouts, while Hurricane Rafael strained the already neglected infrastructure. In turn, we don't expect pre-pandemic output levels to be reached until 2029, with risks tilted to the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
... to 2.9%y/y for 2025 because of damage caused by Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in July. The impact of Beryl this year is likely to be moderate as critical infrastructure and tourism facilities escaped heavy damage. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Trinidad and Tobago
... public wage settlements with unions, helping to lift capital formation and consumption. But due to these fiscal measures, we’re less optimistic on the government balance and now expect the government will run a deficit equivalent ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
... expect GDP will grow by 1.9% next year before slowing down to 1.6% in 2026. Inflation is falling sharply as the global inflationary crisis keeps fading. So, we forecast inflation slightly below 2% for 2025. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Haiti
... of this year with the aim of improving the dire security situation in the country. We now expect growth of 3.1% next year and 6.2% in 2026, driven by pulling forward when we expected economic ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique
... Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique We forecast 2.3% GDP growth for Martinique in 2024, before it moderates to 1.9% in 2025. The tourism recovery and cruise rebound will propel the economy through the medium term. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK)
... Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US economy. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic
... that most of the factors driving the recovery this year will continue to contribute to growth next year. Manufacturing and construction will keep growing amid further interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica
... the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investment after a two years of contraction, will weigh on growth. Base effects from agricultural production after Hurricane Beryl caused significant ... Read More
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Dominican Republic In-depth PEST Insights
... support trend analysis.Synopsis Understand the political system in Dominican Republic through analysis of key figures in the country and governance indicators. Understand the economic situation in Dominican Republic through a balanced assessment of core macroeconomic ... Read More
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Economy of English Speaking Caribbean - 2024
... Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago are considered together in this study. The microstates of the region are not included. Issues discussed are internal budgets, external accounts, economic policies and, in some cases, levels of violence. Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Trinidad and Tobago
... in 2025. Resilience in non-fuel sectors has led to a more optimistic outlook for Trinidad and Tobago's economy. The US economy has also continued to outperform expectations, helping to support exports despite falling commodity prices. Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao
... marking a slowdown from a recent post-pandemic rebound. The higher interest rate environment will weigh on private investment in important industries and the slowdown in global growth will hurt tourism prospects from key advanced economies. Read More
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