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The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities and new Processes

The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities and new Processes

Thintri, Inc. announces the release of a new market study, The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities and new Processes. This report, the third version of Thintri’s initial titanium study analyzes current markets in titanium, pricing and supply issues in a range of titanium products like scrap, sponge, ingot, plate, etc., and effects of current economic and demand conditions. The report also discusses emerging market opportunities through the maturing of technologies that promise to reduce the cost of titanium extraction, manufacturing, machining and welding. Forecasts are provided for both traditional and potential new titanium markets in a number of key sectors.

Titanium, a resource with enormous potential in a large number of markets, has been hobbled by high costs and volatile prices, processing difficulties, supply issues and industry-wide inefficiencies. Titanium has the highest strength to density ratio of any metal, is essentially nonmagnetic, and is highly resistant to corrosion, even in hostile environments like salt water. Furthermore, it is highly biocompatible. Titanium has become well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles, medicine, chemical processing and general industry. In recent years titanium suppliers have worked hard to bring the benefits of titanium to new applications, but just as new markets for titanium have opened up, the supply of titanium tightened considerably, with notable effects on prices. Much of the constricting of supply was attributable to sharply rising aerospace demand as well as greater use in steel production, which reduced the supply of scrap. These factors led to an extraordinary runup in prices, where some more than doubled in a single year, and some users were simply unable to obtain the titanium they needed. The volatility dampened enthusiasm for titanium in new markets where it offers substantial long term cost savings.

In response, suppliers of titanium sponge rapidly moved to expand their output. Very soon, however, markets and prices dropped with the recession. Today, titanium demand is sluggish at best for most (but not all) applications, largely due to plunging markets in oil & gas and an economic slowdown in China. Industry experts indicate that as large aerospace consumers such as Boeing and Airbus work through inventories, expected in late 2016 or early 2017, and the oil & gas sectors bottoms out, demand will rebound. Throughout all this, a number of low cost processing technologies have continued development that promise titanium (commercially pure and alloyed), potentially at greatly reduced cost. These processes, some of which are already commercialized, will significantly reduce costs in extraction, machining, welding and manufacture of titanium, while relieving availability problems that have plagued users in the past. The promise of supply stability and lower prices will create an opening whereby new markets can be captured, bringing titanium to a broad range of new applications.

Low cost production processes could a substantial investment opportunity. Understand the Markets Thintri’s new market study analyzes the current state of traditional titanium markets and current economic conditions. The effects of emerging low cost titanium processes and the market forces that will determine the future of the industry are investigated in detail. New and sometimes unexpected market opportunities are analyzed and forecasts are provided for both traditional markets, some of them unaffected by low cost processes, and new market opportunities created by low cost titanium. The report is based on more than 100 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, Government and academia, as well as a broad range of published materials.


Executive Summary
E1 Introduction
E2 Background: Titanium
E3 The Titanium Industry Today
E4 Supply and Capacity Issues
E5 Price Trends
E6 Demand Outlook
E7 Commercialization of Low Cost Titanium Processes
E8 Effect of a New Low-Cost Player
E9 Latent Demand
Part I: Titanium Background
1.1 Overview
1.2 Titanium in Industry
1.3 History
1.4 Titanium Production
1.5 Issues with Titanium
Part II: Industry Landscape
2.1 The Demand Side
2.1.1 The Aerospace Sector
2.1.1.1
Titanium Deployment in Aircraft
2.1.1.2
The Evolving Aerospace Market
2.1.1.3
Regulations and Certification
2.1.2 Industry, Chemical Processing, etc
2.1.2.1 Industrial Markets
2.1.2.1.1 Chemical Processing
2.1.2.1.2 Other Industry and Manufacture
2.1.3 Medical Applications
2.1.4 Consumer Markets
2.1.5 Automotive Applications
2.1.5.1 Passenger Cars
2.1.5.2
Trucks and Heavy Vehicles
2.2 The Supply Side
2.2.1 Titanium Supply, Demand and Price
Dynamics
2.2.2 Pre-Melt: Sponge and Scrap
2.2.2.1 Sponge
2.2.2.2 Scrap
2.2.2.2.1 Alloying
2.2.3 Melt Products
2.2.4 Mill Products
2.2.5 Capacity Today
2.3 Demand Drivers, Effects on Prices
2.3.1 The Aerospace Factor
2.3.2 Other Factors in Supply
2.3.3 The Effect on New Markets
2.4 Industry Contracts, Agreements and Price
Negotiations
Part III: Cost Issues, Lead Times and Today’s Market
Outlook
3.1 Effects of Price Volatility and Industry Structure
3.2 Price Behavior and Forecasts
3.2.1 Sponge
3.2.2 Scrap 56
3.2.3 Melt Products
3.2.3.1 Slab
3.2.3.2 Ingot
3.2.3.3 Electrodes
3.2.3.4 Plate
3.2.3.4.1 Plate Prices
3.2.3.4.2 Toll Rolling
3.3 Today’s Market Outlook
3.3.1 Effects of the Slowdown
3.3.2 Recovery of the Titanium Industry
3.4 Lead Times
Part 4: Commercialization of Low-Cost Titanium
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Raw Material Issues
4.3 Composition and Alloying
4.4 Quality, Purity, Performance
4.5 Ore-To-Metal Processes
4.5.1 MER/DuPont
4.5.2 Rio Tinto
4.5.3 UTRS, Inc
4.6 The Powder Advantage
4.6.1 Introduction
4.6.2 MMS-Scanpac
4.6.3 University of Utah
4.6.4 ADMA Products
4.6.5 ITP/Cristal Metals
4.6.6 Metalysis
4.6.7 Oak Ridge/Boeing
4.6.8 Powder Applications, Demand & Pricing
4.6.9 Metal Injection Molding
4.6.10 3-D Printing/Additive Manufacturing
4.7 Manufacture & Fabrication
4.7.1 American Titanium Works
4.7.2 Ti Squared Technologies
4.8 Machining
4.9 Welding
4.10 Titanium Process Commercialization
4.11 Effect of a New, Low-Cost Player
Part 5: Latent Demand and Market Opportunities
5.1 Current Market Outlook: Conventional and Latent
Demand
5.2 Consumer Markets
5.2.1 Established Consumer Applications
5.2.1.1 Sporting Goods
5.2.1.2 Jewelry
5.2.1.3 Architecture
5.2.1.4 Marine Markets
5.2.1.5
Price and Supply Issues
5.2.1.6
Latent Consumer Demand
5.3 Automotive Markets
5.3.1 Trucks and Commercial Vehicles
5.3.1.1
Turbocharger Compressor Wheels
5.3.1.2 Valve Train
5.3.1.3 Connecting Rods
5.3.1.4 Exhaust Systems
5.3.1.5 Suspensions
5.3.2 Opportunities in Mass Market Autos
5.3.2.1
Valve Train, Valves, Valve Springs
5.3.2.2 Connecting Rods
5.3.2.3 Exhaust Systems
5.3.2.4 Suspensions
5.3.3 Racing, Motorcycles and Other Small Vehicles..116
5.3.4 Regulations and Fuel Economy
5.3.5 Economics
5.3.6 Latent Automotive Demand
5.4 General Industry, Oil & gas, Mining, etc
5.4.1 Chemical Processing, Pharmaceuticals, etc
5.4.2 Oil & Gas, Mining
5.4.3 Power Generation
5.4.4 Pulp & Paper
5.4.5 Desalination
5.4.6 Latent Industrial Demand
5.5 Aerospace
5.6 Defense
5.6.1 Armor
5.6.1.1 Armoring Vehicles
5.6.1.2 Non-Vehicle Armor
5.6.1.3 Fuel Economy
5.6.1.4 Procurement Issues
5.6.2 Naval Applications
5.6.3 Latent Defense Demand
5.7 Medical Markets
5.7.1 Orthopedic Devices: Implants, Trauma
Fixtures, etc
5.7.2 Surgical Instruments
5.7.3 Latent Medical Demand
Figures and Tables
Figure ES-1 Sponge Capacity by Country
Figure ES-2 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
Figure ES-3 Titanium Use by Aircraft Type
Figure ES-4 Sample Plate Price Trends, Alloy Plate
Figure ES-5 Global Metallic Titanium Demand,
Conventional Forecast
Figure ES-6 Global Titanium Demand by Market,
Conventional Forecast, Industrial,
Medical and Consumer Sectors
Figure ES-7 Global Automotive Latent Demand
Figure ES-8 Global Latent Defense Demand, Armor
Figure ES-9 Global Industrial Latent Demand
Figure 1-1 Shares by Weight, Metallic Titanium
versus Titanium in Pigment
Table 2-1 Current Titanium Markets
Figure 2-1 Industrial Titanium Markets
Table 2-2 Commercial Automobile Titanium
Components
Figure 2-2 Sponge Capacity Growth by Country
Figure 2-3 Sponge Capacity Trends, US vs. Global
Figure 2-4 Scrap Availability Trends
Figure 2-5 Melt Product Capacity Trends
Figure 2-6 Mill Product Capacity Trends
Figure 2-7 Mill Product Demand Trends
Figure 2-8 Titanium Use per Craft, by Aircraft Type
Figure 2-9 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
Figure 2-10 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Freight
Figure 3-1 Sponge Price Trends
Figure 3-2 Scrap Price Trends, Turnings
Figure 3-3 Scrap Price Trends, Bulk Weldable
Figure 3-4 Scrap Price Trends, Clips
Figure 3-5 Scrap Price Trends, Ferro-Titanium
Figure 3-6 Slab Price Trends
Figure 3-7 Ingot Price Trends
Figure 3-8 Electrode Price Trends
Figure 3-9 Forging/VAR Stock Price Trends
Figure 3-10 Plate Price Trends, B265 CP
Figure 3-11 Plate Price Trends, 4911 Alloy
Figure 3-12 Toll Rolling Price Trends, B265 CP and
4911 Alloy Plate
Figure 3-13 Global Metallic Titanium Demand,
Conventional Forecast
Figure 3-14 Global Titanium Demand by Market,
Conventional Forecast, Industrial, Medical
and Consumer Sectors
Figure 3-15 Global Titanium Demand by Market,
Conventional Forecast, Commercial
Aerospace, Military Aerospace and Military
Non-aerospace Sectors
Figure 5-1 Overall Global Latent Titanium Demand
Table 5-1 Titanium Tiles at the Guggenheim Museum,
Bilbao, Spain
Figure 5-2 Global Latent Demand, Consumer
Markets, Non-Automotive
Table 5-2 Existing and Potential Titanium Automotive
Applications
Figure 5-3 Global Latent Demand, Automotive Markets
Figure 5-4 Global Latent Demand, Industrial Markets
Figure 5-5 Commercial Aerospace Latent Demand
Figure 5-6 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Armor
Figure 5-7 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Other
Figure 5-8 Global Latent Demand, Medical Implants
Figure 5-9 Global Latent Demand, Surgical Instruments

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