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Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2006


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Simba Information's Yellow Pages Market Forecast 2006 is your guide to the world of Yellow Pages markets in the United States. This invaluable resource provides you with a deep understanding of the Yellow Pages & Directory Publishing industry at both the market and company level, from growth rates and three-year revenue forecasts, to company profiles, analysis of key trends, competitive strategies and more.

Use this report to uncover the driving forces shaping the strength and direction of the overall market:

  • The state of the overall Yellow Pages & Directory Publishing industry in the United States, including number of books, circulation and revenue
  • The emergence of syndicated usage research as an industry tool to combat other media battling for US advertising dollars
  • Insight into the changing competitive landscape, from the impact of start-up directories on incumbent books to the growth in Internet-only and Hispanic directory markets
  • Insider views of recent mergers & acquisitions, including AT&T's acquisition of BellSouth Corporation that created a $5.8 billion Yellow Pages titan
  • And more
This volume is packed with the information you need to help benchmark your success, size revenues, pinpoint investment activity drivers, identify growth opportunities and much more:
  • Revenue broken out by Telco segment and Independent segment
  • Three-year revenue/market share projections through 2008
  • Advertising spending, rates and trends, including overall page volume, page billings, double half column (DHC) rates and more
  • Over 40 charts and graphs
  • 25+ company profiles that span RBOCs, independents, online-only directories and printers/suppliers


Methodology

pages directory publishing industry in terms of revenues, growth and market share for leading publishers, as well as trends and forces that are shaping the market overall. Simba has been tracking, reporting on and providing analysis to the yellow pages industry since 1985. The data included in this report is built on that foundation.

To reach its conclusions in this report, Simba embarked on an extensive research project that included in-depth interviews with leading players in the industry, as well as experts, industry association members and Wall Street analysts. The data, including estimates and projections for future performance, was then tabulated. While market estimates were based on Simba's analysis of the statistical and numerical data mentioned above, more abstract information was also factored in, such as market trends, individual company strategies and broader economic forecasts. It should be noted that this is merely a cursory description of a complex and systematic process of information gathering and analysis.

The following section describes what Simba has included and excluded in its yellow pages definitions, as a clear understanding of what is being counted is essential to understanding the market size totals contained in this report. Unless otherwise noted, the figures contained in this report are for U.S.-based operations only. The company profiles all contain information gained from interviews, Simba estimates and publicly available information sources.

Segmentation of the Yellow Pages Industry

The yellow pages publishing market can be broken down into two segments: telephone company (telco) publishers and independent (non-telco) publishers. The telephone company publisher segment includes the yellow pages units of the four regional Bell operating companies -- BellSouth, SBC, Qwest and Verizon. It also includes the yellow pages units of independent telephone service providers (telephone companies that are not affiliated with an RBOC), such as Alltel and CenturyTel. The non-telco independent publisher segment includes companies that are not affiliated with a phone company. These companies publish competitive directories -- directories that were launched to compete with previously existing directories published by incumbent local telephone companies in their telephone markets.

Sources of Information

Primary Research

  • Interviews with key executives within the industry and culled from internal database for background information.
  • Current and archived content from Simba's newsletter, Yellow Pages & Directory Report, and market research reports, Yellow Pages Market Forecast, Independent Yellow Pages Markets, Worldwide Yellow Pages Markets and Internet Yellow Pages.
Secondary Research
  • Annual reports/SEC filings
  • Interviews with financial analysts
  • Industry association surveys
  • Industry conferences and events
  • Presentations made by publishers to investors
  • Marketing materials
  • Press releases
  • Other government and company resources
Methodology for Projecting/Estimating Results When reported information was not available because a company is privately held or does not publicly release segment revenue and earnings figures, estimates were developed by Simba Information using various combinations of the sources listed above. Simba also uses: historical trends, general guidance provided by company executives, size of competitors and relative sizing based on customer observations. All Simba estimates in this report are marked (E) for estimate.

Market projections and forecasts are made by using historical trend analysis, compound annual growth rates, forecasts provided by the companies themselves in interviews, quarterly/yearly earnings reports and anecdotal information provided by the sources listed above. If a figure is restated from a previously published report, it means Simba has obtained new data from a company source and has factored that updated information into its estimates.

Simba analysts also work closely with the financial investment/analyst community to develop their estimates in accordance with market fluctuations and changes in the economy.

Executive Summary


Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Yellow Pages Publishing Market
Introduction
Industry Size and Growth
National and State Economy
Industry Trends and Analysis
Increased Competition
RBOC Companion Directories Generate Revenue -- For Now
Internet Directory Models
Market for Hispanic Directories Expands
Syndicated Usage Research Becomes Reality
Mergers, Acquisitions and Divestitures Run High in 2005 and 1Q 2006
Litigation in the Yellow Pages Industry


Table 1.1: Statistical Summary of the Yellow Pages Industry, 2000-2005
Table 1.2: Personal Income, by State, 3Q 2004 vs. 3Q 2005
Table 1.3: Fastest Growing States in Personal Income, 3Q 2004 vs. 3Q 2005
Table 1.4: Scheduled Startups, 2005-2007
Table 1.5: Participating Publishers, Syndicated YP Usage Research, 2005-2006
Table 1.6: Yellow Pages Usage, Yellow Book vs. Incumbents, Markets
Table 1.7: Financial Size of Selected Yellow Pages Acquisitions, 2005-1Q 2006
Table 1.8: Financial Size of Selected Historical Yellow Pages Acquisitions, 1988-2004
Table 1.9: Yellow Pages Industry Lawsuits, 1983-2005


Chapter 2: Yellow Pages Advertising and Publishing
Introduction
Total Advertising and Yellow Pages Advertising
Leading Certified Marketing Representatives (CMRs)
TMP Directional Marketing
Wahlstrom Group
Berry Network
Ketchum Directory Advertising
Yellow Pages Advertising Rates
Yellow Pages Advertising Revenue at Regional Bell Companies
The Shrinking of the RBOC World
AT&T Yellow Pages
Verizon Information Services
BellSouth Advertising & Publishing
Dex Media
Changing the Face of the Industry
Independent Non-Telco and Telco Publishers
Yellow Book USA
White Directory Publishers
Valley Yellow Pages
DataNational
Phone Directories Co.
User-Friendly Phone Book
Independents Confident in Metro Markets
Leading Independent Telco Publishers
R.H. Donnelley Publishing & Advertising
Alltel Publishing
CBD Media
CenturyTel
Independent Publishers vs. Non-Bell Publishers vs. RBOC Publishers
Employment in Directory Publishing
Forecast Industry Growth


Table 2.1: Yellow Pages Growth Rates, 1990-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 2.2: Revenue Growth in All U.S. Advertising Media, 2003-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 2.3: National vs. Local Advertising Revenue in All Major Media, 2003-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 2.4: Yellow Pages Advertising Compared to Local Advertising and All Advertising, 2003-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 2.5: Yellow Pages' Share of U.S. Advertising, 2002-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 2.6: National vs. Local Yellow Pages Advertising, 2003-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 2.7: Selected Largest Certified Marketing Representatives (CMRs), by Revenue, 2004-2005
Table 2.8: Average Advertising Rate Increases, 25 Top RBOC Directories, 1990-2006P
Table 2.9: DHC Rates in 25 Top RBOC Directories, 2006 vs. 2005 Table 2.10: Yellow Pages Revenue for Regional Bell Publishers, 2004-2006P
Table 2.11: Largest U.S. Yellow Pages Directory Publishers, 2005
Table 2.12: Estimated Revenue of Select Non-Telco Publishers, 2004-2005
Table 2.13: DHC Rates, Major Competitive Yellow Pages Markets, 2006 vs. 2005
Table 2.14: Yellow Pages Revenue vs. Total Revenue, Top 6
Telco Publishers, 2005
Table 2.15: Forecast Yellow Pages Revenue Growth by Publisher Category, 2005-2008
Table 2.16: Select Telco-Affiliate Publishers Ranked by Employee Headcount, 2002-2005
Table 2.17: Yellow Pages Revenue vs. Telco Revenue vs. Advertising in All Media, 1985-2005


Chapter 3: Internet Yellow Pages
Introduction
Top Publishers in the Internet Yellow Pages Arena
AT&T-BellSouth's YellowPages.com
Verizon's SuperPages.com
DexOnline.com
YellowBook.com
Internet-Only Yellow Pages Providers
Infospace Inc.
infoUSA
Superior Business Network
Partnerships Extend Reach
Online Directory Listings and Enhancements


Table 3.1: Internet Yellow Pages Advertising as a Share of All Internet Advertising, 2003-2006P
Table 3.2: Internet Yellow Pages Advertising Revenue, 2003-2005 and Forecast 2006
Table 3.3: Revenue Growth, Internet-Only Yellow Pages Publishers, 2003-2005
Table 3.4: Key Internet Alliances in the Yellow Pages Industry
Table 3.5: Major Internet Sites and the Internet Yellow Pages Publishers That Power Them, 2005
Table 3.6: Sources of RBOC Online Directory Listings


Chapter 4: Markets for Printers and Suppliers
Introduction
Directory Unit Production by Publisher
Billings in RBOCs' 50,000+ Circulation Directories Increased in 2005
Leading Directory Printers
R.R. Donnelley
Quebecor World
Verizon Information Services Printing
Stevens Graphics
College Publishing
Paper Consumption by Directory Publishers
The Pre-Media Market
Amdocs
Volt Information Sciences
Summary and Conclusions


Table 4.1: RBOC Directory Publishers Ranked by Circulation, 2003-2005
Table 4.2: Large Independent Telco and Non-Telco Directory Publishers Ranked by Circulation, 2003-2005
Table 4.3: Number of Titles and Yellow Pages Volume in RBOC Directories with Circulation More Than 50,000, 2004 vs. 2005
Table 4.4: Circulation in RBOC Books over 50,000 Circulation vs. Total RBOC Circulation, 2004-2005
Table 4.5: Summary of Leading Directory Printers, Major Customers and Print Runs, 2004-2005
Table 4.6: Capacity and Consumption, Total Uncoated Groundwood Paper, 2004-2005
Table 4.7: U.S. Demand for Directory Paper, 2004-2005 9
Table 4.8: Outlays for Printing, Paper, Other Production and Distribution, Directory Publishing Industry, 2001-2005


Chapter 5: Profiles of RBOC Publishers
AT&T Communications
BellSouth Corp.
Dex Media Inc.
Verizon Communications


Chapter 6: Profiles of Leading Independent Telco Publishers
Alltel Corp.
CBD Media
CenturyTel
Citizens Communications
EATEL
R.H. Donnelley


Chapter 7: Profiles of Leading Independent Publishers
DataNational
Phone Directories Co.
User-Friendly Phone Book
Valley Yellow Pages
White Directory Publishers
Yellow Book USA


Chapter 8: Profiles of Leading Printers and Suppliers
Amdocs Ltd.
The Berry Co. Inc.
College Publishing
Quebecor World Inc.
R.R. Donnelley & Sons
Stevens Graphics Inc.
Volt Information Sciences Inc.


Chapter 9: Profiles of Leading Internet-Only Directories
InfoSpace Inc.
infoUSA Inc.
Superior Business Network Inc.

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