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Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2014

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014

Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014 is a critical research tool that explores a much-discussed but little-understood side of the market: children’s e-books. In a pair of nationally representative surveys you just can’t get anywhere else, Simba answers the pressing questions pertaining to this segment: What percentage of adults buy children’s and YA books, and in what format are they buying them? How do e-book buyers and iPad owners view the intersection between children and reading, and what extent do they buy digital children’s books? And finally, how many are buying children’s and YA print and e-books to read for themselves?

In this report, Simba examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens, as well as an in-depth look at format trends. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box stores.

This exclusive statistics and analysis in this report include:

  • Proprietary data on children’s e-book adoption levels, as well as exclusive e-book user and iPad owner trend data.
  • Analysis of the bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors, imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are not.
  • Exhaustive demographic review of adult buyers of children’s/YA books
  • Multi-year results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country, which rate different books and genres as well as profiling buyer and retail trends.
  • Category trends for 15 major juvenile categories with five or more years of data.
  • Projections on the children’s/YA market size through 2015
Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2014 also includes profiles of bestseller performance and financial estimates for companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.


  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
  • Overview of the U.S. Children's/YA Book Market and Buyer Demographics
    • Introduction
    • Who Are the Buyers?
      • Table How Common are the Following Children's/YA Book Buyers? (percentage of respondents)
      • Table When Parent(s) or Adults are Buying a Children's/YA Book, Who Is It Usually?
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults With Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total weighted adult population in 000)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandfathers Who Have Purchased Children's Books (No. of adults, total sample in 000)
    • Children's Book Buyer Demographics
      • Gender
      • Race
      • Age Bracket
      • Education Level
      • Household Income
      • Employment Status
      • Region
      • Kind of Residence
      • Marital Status
      • Number of Children in Household
      • Age of Children in Household
      • Vertical Demographic Overview
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Gender
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Race
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Age Bracket
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Education Level
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Household Income
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Employment Status
        • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books by Region
        • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Kind of Residence
        • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Children's Consumers by Marital Status
        • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Children's Book Buyers by Household Children Population
        • Table Overview of Book Buying Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers by Age of Children in Household
        • Table Children's Book Buyers: Key Statistics and Demographics
  • Trends in Children's/YA Book Publishing
    • Introduction
      • Children's/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: Revenue Trends
        • Table Domestic Net Sales of Consumer Books by Book Type, 2011-2012 ($ in millions)
        • Table Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2013 vs. 2012
    • Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
      • Table Boys/Girls Enjoyment of Reading Books for Fun (2010 – 2012)
      • Table Boys/Girls Frequency of Reading Books for Fun (2010 – 2012)
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buyers of Books by Age Group (2011-2013)
    • Trends in Children's/YA E-Book Adoption
      • Table Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases (February 2012-2013)
      • Table Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (June 2013)
      • Table Opinions on Children, Reading and Technology (All Adults, E-Book users and iPad Owners) Any Agree, 2012-2013
      • Table Print and Digital Children's Book Purchases: iPad Owners and E-Book Users (August 2012 – June 2013)
      • Table Print: Why Did You Buy a Children's/YA Print Book? (August 2012 – June 2013)
      • Table Digital: Why Did You Buy A Children's/YA Digital Title? (August 2012)
      • Table Children's Book Buyers Who Also Use E-Books (2011-2013) ($ in millions)
    • Children's Educational Apps: Key Statistics
      • Table Percentage of U.S. Adult's with Child(ren) in Household Who Has Purchased/Downloaded Children's/YA Educational Apps (April-June 2013)
    • The Value of Series
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2008–June 2009
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2009–June 2010
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2010–June 2011
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2011–June 2012
      • Table NYT/USA Today Children's Bestsellers, July 2012–June 2013
    • Success Still Consolidated
      • Table Average Bestselling Titles per Author (2008-2013)
    • Hardcover, Paperback Formats Still Holding On Despite E-Book Rise
      • Table Format Trends: Hardcover, Paperback, and E-Book as Percentage of Children's/YA (2011 – 2012)
    • TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important
    • Retailer and `Intermediaries' Relationships and Influence Changing
      • Table Best Performing Categories, 2008-2012 (Based on consolidated ranking across NYT, USA Today and PW bestseller lists)
      • Table How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children's Books in Terms of How They Sell? (7=best; 1=worst)
    • Teen Books Still Cooling Post-Twilight
      • Table Children's Titles by Age Range on Weekly Bestseller Lists (2003-2013 - YTD)
      • Table When Looking at Children's and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
  • Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
    • Introduction
      • Table No. of New Children's/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006–June 2013
    • New York Times Series Bestsellers
      • Table Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 54 total)
      • Table Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 46 total)
      • Table Top 20 New York Times Series Imprints, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 25 total)
    • USA Today Bestsellers
      • Bestselling Books, Authors and Imprints
      • Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
        • Table Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 209 total)
        • Table Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 123 total)
        • Table Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 69 total)
        • Table Top 20 NYT & USA Today Bestsellers, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 591 total)
        • Table Top 20 NYT & USA Today Authors, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 289 total)
      • New Titles
      • Bestselling Authors
      • Leading Imprints
        • Table Top 20 NYT & USA Today Imprints, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 110 total)
        • Table Leading Children's Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2010–June 2012 (sorted by total ranking)
    • Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title
      • Table Comparison of Publishers, July 2012–June 2013 (sorted by total ranking)
  • Market Sizing and Forecasts
    • Introduction
      • Table Scholastic Revenue, FY2001—2013 (in millions of U.S. dollars)
    • Leading Children's Publishers
      • Candlewick
      • Disney Publishing Worldwide
      • Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
      • HarperCollins
      • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
      • Macmillan
      • Penguin Group (USA)
      • Random House
      • Scholastic
      • Simon & Schuster
    • Size of the Children's Publishing Market
      • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2011–2015P (in billions)
    • Leading Children's Publishers by Revenue
      • Table Leading Children's Publishers, 2011–2015P ($ in millions)
    • Forecast for Balance of 2013 and Beyond
    • January–March Comparisons (2012–2013)
      • Table AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Sales (Jan.-March 2013) ($ in millions)
      • Table AAP Results: Children's/YA Category Returns ($ in millions)
    • Consumer Spending on Children's/YA Books
      • Table Total Amount Spent by Consumers on Children's/YA Books (Print and/or Digital) Past 12 Months
      • Table Total Amount Spent by Tablet Owners on Children's/YA Books (Print and/or Digital) Past 12 Months
  • Category Trends
    • Introduction
    • The Top Categories
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008–June 2009 (out of 61 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009–June 2010 (out of 66 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010–June 2011 (out of 71 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011–June 2012 (out of 66 total)
      • Table Leading Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 73 total)
    • USA Today Bestseller Data
    • Children's/YA Individual Category Analysis
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009–June 2010 (out of 45 total)
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010–June 2011 (out of 50 total)
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2011–June 2012 (out of 56 total)
      • Table Leading USA Today Children's Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2012–June 2013 (out of 56 total)
      • Table Select Category Ratings, Seven-Year Overview (ranked alphabetically)
    • Action & Adventure
      • Table Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Action & Adventure
    • Animals
      • Table Animals Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Animals
    • Family & Relationships
      • Table Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Family & Relationships
    • Fantasy
      • Table Fantasy Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Fantasy
    • Graphic Novel
      • Table Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Graphic Novel*
    • History
      • Table History Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – History
    • Horror
      • Table Horror Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Horror
    • Horror & Ghost
      • Table Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Horror & Ghost
    • Humor
      • Table Humor Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Humor
    • People & Places
      • Table People & Places Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – People & Places
    • Religion
      • Table Religion Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Religion
    • Schools & Education
      • Table Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Schools & Education
    • Science Fiction
      • Table Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Science Fiction
    • Social Issues
      • Table Social Issues Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Social Issues
    • Social Science
      • Table Social Science Bestseller Performance
      • Table Vital Statistics – Social Science
  • Distribution and Retail Sales
    • Introduction
    • Where Books Are Being Purchased
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends (2008-2013) (No. of adults in 000)
    • Mass Merchandisers and Children's Book Retailing
      • Table Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box (2002-2012)
      • Table Bestselling Children's Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2013
    • Barnes & Noble
      • Table Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2009-2013 ($ in 000)
    • Books-A-Million
      • Table Bookstore Chains' Operating Performance, 2007-2013 ($ in millions)
      • Table Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2007-2012 ($ in millions)
    • Operating Performance at the Big Two Chains
    • Superstores and Small-Format Store Closings
    • Online Bookselling
      • Table Major U.S. Bookstore Chains: Number of Superstore Outlets: 2007-2012
    • Amazon.com
      • Table Amazon's Media Sales vs. Electronics Sales As a Percentage of Total Sales, Q12007-Q12013
    • Barnes & Noble and Books-A-Million
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer (No. of adults in 000)
    • Channel Breakdown for All Buyers vs. Children's Book Buyers
      • Table Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer (No. of adults in 000)
      • Table Five-Year Trend: Children's Book Buyers Who Only Use Online Channel (2009-2013) (in millions)
      • Table Five-Year Trend: Children's Book Buyers Who Only Use Bookstores (2009-2013) (in millions)
    • Attitudes and Opinions about Shopping Among Children's Book Buyers
      • Table Overview of U.S. Adults and Children's Book Buyers: Attitudes and Opinions on Shopping (Any Agree) (in 000)
  • Forecasts and Conclusions
    • Conclusions
      • Table Parent Factors that Impact Child's Reading Frequency
    • Other Recommendations:
      • Table Revenue Growth, Children's Trade Book Market, 2011–2015P (in billions)
  • Profiles of Leading Children's Book Publishers
    • Candlewick Press
    • Disney Publishing Worldwide
    • Hachette Book Group
    • HarperCollins Publishers
    • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
    • Macmillan
    • Penguin Group (USA)
    • Random House Inc.
    • Scholastic Corp.
    • Simon & Schuster Inc.

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