Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Asia - Telecom Forecasts

As mobile growth across Asia shifts to new generation services, data usage sees massive increase

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country.

Our scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2015 and 2020.

Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2009 | 4.8 | 17.2% | 4.8 | 17.2%
2010 | 4.9 | 17.2% | 4.9 | 17.2%
2011 | 4.1 | 14.2% | 4.1 | 14.2%
2012 | 3.9 | 13.3% | 3.9 | 13.3%
2015 | 3.7 | 12.5% | 4.2 | 14.2%
2020 | 3.5 | 10.7% | 4.9 | 14.9%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Malaysia - Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers1
(million) | HH2 penetration | Subscribers1 (million) | HH2 penetration
2009 | 3.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 42%
2010 | 4.7 | 56% | 4.7 | 56%
2011 | 5.7 | 62% | 5.7 | 62%
2012 | 6.4 | 66% | 6.4 | 66%
2015 | 8.0 | 70% | 13.5 | 75%
2020 | 11.0 | 80% | 22.0 | 100%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Note: 1includes all fixed and mobile wireless broadband subscribers; 2HH = household

Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2009 | 30.4 | 106% | 30.4 | 106%
2010 | 33.9 | 119% | 33.9 | 119%
2011 | 36.7 | 128% | 36.7 | 128%
2012 | 41.3 | 142% | 41.3 | 142%
2015 | 42.0 | 138% | 46.0 | 151%
2020 | 48.0 | 145% | 60.0 | 181%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year