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Asia - Telecom Forecasts


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Asia - Telecom Forecasts

As mobile growth across Asia shifts to new generation services, data usage sees massive increase

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country.

Our scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Malaysia. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts in this instance are for the years 2015 and 2020.

Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2009 | 4.8 | 17.2% | 4.8 | 17.2%
2010 | 4.9 | 17.2% | 4.9 | 17.2%
2011 | 4.1 | 14.2% | 4.1 | 14.2%
2012 | 3.9 | 13.3% | 3.9 | 13.3%
2015 | 3.7 | 12.5% | 4.2 | 14.2%
2020 | 3.5 | 10.7% | 4.9 | 14.9%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Malaysia - Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers1
(million) | HH2 penetration | Subscribers1 (million) | HH2 penetration
2009 | 3.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 42%
2010 | 4.7 | 56% | 4.7 | 56%
2011 | 5.7 | 62% | 5.7 | 62%
2012 | 6.4 | 66% | 6.4 | 66%
2015 | 8.0 | 70% | 13.5 | 75%
2020 | 11.0 | 80% | 22.0 | 100%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Note: 1includes all fixed and mobile wireless broadband subscribers; 2HH = household

Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2009 | 30.4 | 106% | 30.4 | 106%
2010 | 33.9 | 119% | 33.9 | 119%
2011 | 36.7 | 128% | 36.7 | 128%
2012 | 41.3 | 142% | 41.3 | 142%
2015 | 42.0 | 138% | 46.0 | 151%
2020 | 48.0 | 145% | 60.0 | 181%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year


  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • BACKGROUND NOTES TO MARKET FORECASTS
  • AFGHANISTAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Afghanistan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Afghanistan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Afghanistan - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • AZERBAIJAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Azerbaijan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS -MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Azerbaijan - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • BANGLADESH
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Bangladesh - Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Bangladesh - Forecast fixed internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Bangladesh - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • CAMBODIA
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Cambodia - Forecast fixed-line growth - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Cambodia - Forecast fixed internet subscriber growth - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Cambodia - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - 2015; 2020
  • CHINA
    • FORECAST FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2013-2018
      • Table China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table China - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
    • FORECAST BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2013-2018
      • Table China - Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table China - Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
    • FORECAST INTERNET USERS - 2013-2018
      • Table China - Forecast internet users and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table China - Forecast internet users and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
    • FORECAST MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS 2013-2014; 2018
      • Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
        • Table China - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast - 2013 - 2014; 2018
        • Table China - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast - 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers
        • Table China - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market - 2013 - 2014, 2018
  • GEORGIA
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Georgia - Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Georgia - Forecast internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Georgia - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • HONG KONG
    • FORECAST FIXED LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2013-2014; 2018
      • Table Hong Kong - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band - 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table Hong Kong - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band - 2013 - 2014; 2018
    • FORECAST BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS: 2013-2014; 2018
      • Table Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table Hong Kong - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
  • INDIA
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table India - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS- INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table India - Forecast fixed internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table India - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • INDONESIA
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET: 2015; 2020
      • Table Indonesia - Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Indonesia - Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET: 2015; 2020
      • Table Indonesia - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
  • JAPAN
    • FORECAST FIXED LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table Japan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013-2014; 2018
      • Table Japan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013-2014; 2018
    • FORECAST BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS: 2012-2013; 2017
      • Table Japan - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
      • Table Japan - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012-2013; 2017
    • FORECAST FTTX SUBSCRIBERS: 2012-2013; 2017
      • Table Japan - Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
      • Table Japan - Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012-2012; 2017
  • KAZAKHSTAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Kazakhstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Kazakhstan - Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Kazakhstan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
  • KYRGYZSTAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Kyrgyzstan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Kyrgyzstan - Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Kyrgyzstan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
  • LAOS
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Laos - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Laos - Forecast internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Laos - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • MACAU
    • FORECAST MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2012-2013; 2017
      • Table Macau - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
      • Table Macau - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
  • MALAYSIA
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Malaysia - Forecast fixed-line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - BROADBAND INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Malaysia - Forecast broadband internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Malaysia - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • NEPAL
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Nepal - Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Nepal - Forecast fixed internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Nepal - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • PAKISTAN
    • FORECAST - FIXED LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Pakistan - Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Pakistan - Forecast internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECAST - MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Pakistan - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • PHILIPPINES
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Philippines - Forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Philippines - Forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Philippines - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020
  • SOUTH KOREA
    • FORECAST FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2012 - 2013; 2017
      • Table South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
      • Table South Korea - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
    • FORECAST BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2011 - 2012; 2017
      • Table South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
      • Table South Korea - Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
    • FORECAST: MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS 2012- 2013; 2017
      • Table South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast - 2011 - 2012; 2017
      • Table South Korea - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast - 2011 - 2012; 2017
  • SRI LANKA
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Sri Lanka - Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rate - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Sri Lanka - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 2015; 2020
  • TAIWAN
    • FORECAST FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2012 (ACTUAL); 2013 AND 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
    • FORECAST FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS - 2012 (ACTUAL); 2013, 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 (actual), 2013; 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 (actual); 2013; 2018
    • FORECAST TOTAL MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2012 (ACTUAL); 2013, 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
    • FORECAST 3G MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2012 (ACTUAL); 2013, 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
      • Table Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
  • THAILAND
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Thailand - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Thailand - Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS - 2015; 2020
      • Table Thailand - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate -2015; 2020
  • UZBEKISTAN
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Uzbekistan - Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Uzbekistan - Forecast fixed internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Uzbekistan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
  • VIETNAM
    • FORECASTS - FIXED-LINE MARKET - 2015; 2020
      • Table Vietnam - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - INTERNET SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Vietnam - Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
    • FORECASTS - MOBILE SERVICES - 2015; 2020
      • Table Vietnam - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020

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