Analysis by Region - Europe - France

Analysis by Region - Europe - France

We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for France by 0.4ppts to 2.7% after a 0.5% q/q GDP expansion in Q2 beat expectations. Services exports, investment, and inventories were the main drivers, more than offsetting a new contraction in consumption and exports of goods. However, the near-term outlook has worsened amid persistent high inflation, rapidly falling confidence, and energy supply worries over the winter. We therefore expect the economy to slow sharply from Q4, prompting us to cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.2pts to 0.9%. Risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside.

France: Outlook for 2023 worsens despite strong Q2
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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