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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jun 30, 2025
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE20204920

Description

Amid multiple signs of slowing activity, we still expect Ukraine's economy to expand by about 2.6% in 2025 and 3.5% y/y in 2026. Defence-related public procurement and higher military-sector wages continue to support the economy, but energy and labour market shortages serve as a drag. Peace talks have yielded no results and the war with Russia is escalating and looks likely to spill over into 2026. This poses downside risks to our growth forecast for next year.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: Signs of activity pick up, against a sluggish backdrop
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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