Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
The ongoing war is taking its toll on economic activity in Ukraine via persistent energy shortages and a hit to consumer confidence due to the ongoing mobilisation of troops. The Ministry of Economy estimates GDP growth slowed from 4.1% y/y in H1 this year to 3.9% y/y in the first eight months of this year, and energy shortages have caused a further drag in H2. We expect GDP growth of 3.7% y/y this year and have cut our forecast for 2025 by 0.3ppts also to 3.7% y/y.
- Ukraine: Another war budget approved for 2025
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
Research Assistance
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