Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Sri Lanka by 1.2ppts to 4.5% y/y. Momentum is slowing, and the election result will likely damage business confidence and investment plans. GDP grew 4.7% y/y (1.8% q/q) in Q2, driven by a 1.3ppt contribution from manufacturing to the quarterly outturn. Our 2024 growth forecast remains 0.6ppts above consensus and 2.5ppts above the IMF's projection. However, we only expect GDP will recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2026.
- Sri Lanka: Election results put IMF program performance at risk
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
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