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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Sep 26, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20535974

Description

Our 2026 GDP forecast for Russia is unchanged at 0.8%, but we've reduced our 2025 projection by 0.1ppt to 0.9%, based on the signs of a waning fiscal impulse. The draft medium-term budget confirms the government's plans to cut the budget deficit next year. Tighter fiscal policy will leave the central bank with more room to ease monetary policy. But the VAT and minimum wage hikes planned for January will complicate its task of bringing inflation back to the 4% target.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Russia: Fiscal consolidation plan confirmed for 2026-2028
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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