Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 3.8% from 3.6% to reflect evidence that activity remained buoyant in Q2 following strong Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% y/y. At 1.6%, our 2025 forecast is unchanged. We expect the economy to start cooling in H2 as monetary conditions are to tighten further. In 2025, a combination of fiscal consolidation and very tight monetary policy will result in a significant economic slowdown. However, labour market tightness is likely to persist for as long as the war in Ukraine goes on and remain a driver of inflation.

Russia: Higher odds of Trump presidency stoke hopes of peace
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade

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