Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

We raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.4ppts to 3.6% and increased our 2025 forecast to 1.6% from 0.6%, as we expect growth momentum to spill over to next year. Front-loaded fiscal spending and rapid wage and credit growth have fuelled demand this year. Unseasonably cold weather in Russia's main agricultural regions raised the spectre of a new regional food price shock, with possible implications for monetary policy trajectory.

Russia: New pro-inflationary risks may lead to further tightening
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evalua

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