We've downgraded our Romanian growth outlook following a substantial increase in US tariffs. The increased cost of importing Romanian goods into the US will directly drag on Romanian exports. Weaker global growth will indirectly weigh on demand from the rest of the world, while a prolonged period of trade policy uncertainty will hold back business investment. As a result, we have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 0.5ppts to 1.6% for 2025 and by 0.3ppts to 2.2% in 2026.
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