Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've left our GDP growth forecast for Romania in 2024 unchanged at 1.9%. Evidence that strong household consumption and investment are being offset by a deterioration in net exports means we are growing more concerned that the economy's supply side is unable to support the upturn in domestic demand. With GDP growth of just 0.7% in H1 2024 and the drag from net exports unlikely to abate in the near-term, the balance of risks to our forecast is tilted firmly to the downside. We plan to wait until the National Institute of Statistics releases a comprehensive set of revisions on October 10 before making any major changes to our near-term GDP growth forecast.
- Romania: Weak supply side unable to match strong domestic demand
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings.
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Politics and policy
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