Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania

We've lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.2ppts to 2.3%, primarily reflecting a weaker outlook for external demand. We expect that activity will struggle to gain significant momentum over H2 2023 given the headwinds from sticky inflation, high interest rates, and fiscal consolidation efforts. However, growth should pick up in 2024 as the drags from some of these factors fade and the lagged impact of positive real pay growth supports consumer spending.

Romania: Growth outlook weakens as External Pressures mount
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings.
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
politics and Policy

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