Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.2ppts to 2.3%, primarily reflecting a weaker outlook for external demand. We expect that activity will struggle to gain significant momentum over H2 2023 given the headwinds from sticky inflation, high interest rates, and fiscal consolidation efforts. However, growth should pick up in 2024 as the drags from some of these factors fade and the lagged impact of positive real pay growth supports consumer spending.
Romania: Growth outlook weakens as External Pressures mountForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warnings.What to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradepolitics and Policy