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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 30, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE21077156

Description

We cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. The revision stems partly from the cold spell at the start of the year which hit construction and, thus, Q1 GDP growth. But more importantly, the surge in energy prices triggered by the war in the Middle East will weigh on activity too. While we assume energy prices will normalize by year-end and for output to recoup losses next year with GDP up by 3%, risks are now skewed to the downside.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Poland: Iran war to take a modest toll on the economy
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short
term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short
term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long
term prospects
Alternative long
run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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