Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We've kept our 2023 growth forecast for Poland unchanged at 0.5%, and expect GDP to expand by 2.1% in 2024. GDP surprised to the downside in Q2, even if the marked contraction was likely overstated due to seasonal adjustment issues. We expect growth to pick up only gradually over H2 and early 2024, driven by the rebound in consumer spending on the back of recovering real wages, valorisation of social transfers, and improvements to external demand.
Poland: Activity has likely bottomed out, but rebound will be gradualForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term growth outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicyPolitics