Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

We've kept our 2023 growth forecast for Poland unchanged at 0.5%, and expect GDP to expand by 2.1% in 2024. GDP surprised to the downside in Q2, even if the marked contraction was likely overstated due to seasonal adjustment issues. We expect growth to pick up only gradually over H2 and early 2024, driven by the rebound in consumer spending on the back of recovering real wages, valorisation of social transfers, and improvements to external demand.