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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Oct 09, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20535955

Description

Our 2026 GDP growth outlook is unchanged at 1.5%, only marginally above the consensus of 1.4%. However, risks are still tilted to the downside as this month's end of the 90-day US tariff reprieve could result in additional sectoral duties ahead of the renegotiation of the USMCA free-trade deal. Our 2025 GDP growth estimate remains at 0.6%, in line with the consensus.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Mexico: End to 90-day tariff reprieve could open sectoral threat
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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