We've increased our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 6.9% from 6.3% as some of last year's strong growth momentum will have spilled over to this year. Domestic demand rose quickly in H2 2024 on a combination of positive factors – the development of new transport and foreign trade links in the region – and negative ones – the persistent household credit bubble and ad hoc spending from the sovereign fund. Meanwhile, the expansion of the giant Tengiz oil field, which is now planned for Q2, will fuel growth in oil production this year and drive a 20% increase in oil output in 2025-2027, boosting export revenue and supporting the currency.
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