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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Mar 31, 2026
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE21076929

Description

We've cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Indonesia by 0.2ppts to 5.1% y/y. We expect private consumption to hold up as the government protects consumers from the oil price shock, perhaps at the expense of some public investment. The fiscal deficit should stay close to – but not breach – the 3%-of-GDP cap. We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to prioritise currency stability, with a single rate cut pencilled in for late Q3, albeit dependent on currency stability.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Indonesia: Oil shock means tough trade
offs for policymakers
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short
term outlook
Key drivers of our short
term forecast
Economic risks
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long
term prospects
Alternative long
run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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