Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Equatorial Guinea
Description
Ongoing declines in oil output have prompted us to revise our 2026 real GDP forecast for Equatorial Guinea to a contraction of 1.3% (previously -1.0%). Due to declining oil reserves, the country's hydrocarbon output deteriorated significantly last year, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a slowdown in oil production from approximately 87,000 bpd in January 2025 to 50,000 bpd in January 2026. This decline was compounded by a 14.2% drop in Brent crude prices over the same period, leading to an estimated 7.9% contraction in real GDP in 2025.
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