Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Strong Q1 2022 national accounts data forced us to revisit our GDP growth estimate to 4.3% this year, from 3.8% previously. But the Colombian economy is likely to experience a technical recession this year, on the back of a sharper tightening in domestic and foreign financial conditions. We expect the fading of fiscal stimulus to hit activity momentum hard in the second quarter of the year, allowing for domestic demand to start a gradual correction.
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