Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Brazil is 3%, with downward risks as we expect the Q3 national accounts release to confirm the beginning of a technical recession. In September, GDP disappointed consensus, contracting by 0.1% on the month. This was followed by weaker services and aggregate employment, suggesting Brazil's heavily restrictive monetary policy stance is finally impacting growth materially. We explain our below consensus forecast for next year further in our short-term growth assessment.
Brazil: Weak L3 GDP might debut A technical recessionForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolitics