Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Brazil is 3%, with downward risks as we expect the Q3 national accounts release to confirm the beginning of a technical recession. In September, GDP disappointed consensus, contracting by 0.1% on the month. This was followed by weaker services and aggregate employment, suggesting Brazil's heavily restrictive monetary policy stance is finally impacting growth materially. We explain our below consensus forecast for next year further in our short-term growth assessment.