Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina



We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Argentina at -3.9%. Argentina's Q1 2024 national accounts showed the economy contracted by 5.1% y/y (2.6% q/q), in line with our forecast and 0.2ppts below consensus. The domestic demand correction intensified in Q1, with household consumption and imports contracting sharply. Exports posted the only quarterly expansion. We expect GDP to rebound in 2025 to 4.2% y/y, 0.9ppts above consensus.


Argentina: Expect deeper reform as Milei gains governability
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risk scenarios
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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