Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We have decreased our 2023 GDP forecast to -2% from -0.8% last month to account for downward revisions to monthly GDP that reflect a deeper contraction in H1 and a worsening inflation outlook. The severe drought affecting Argentina's harvest has shaved off 40% of agricultural output, with most of the slump concentrated in Q2. We now envisage a sharper contraction in consumption due to an upward revision to inflation squeezing real wages.
Argentina: Soaring inflation portends a severe consumer recessionForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicyPolitics