Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina

We have decreased our 2023 GDP forecast to -2% from -0.8% last month to account for downward revisions to monthly GDP that reflect a deeper contraction in H1 and a worsening inflation outlook. The severe drought affecting Argentina's harvest has shaved off 40% of agricultural output, with most of the slump concentrated in Q2. We now envisage a sharper contraction in consumption due to an upward revision to inflation squeezing real wages.

Argentina: Soaring inflation portends a severe consumer recession
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade

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