Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan

Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan



We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1%, while maintaining our 2024 growth projection at 0.2%. The downgrade to next year's growth forecast was driven by slightly worse outlooks for consumption and investment, given that we now expect the policy rate will be hiked again this year, instead of waiting until next spring.


Japan: An earlier rate hike would affect the growth outlook manageably
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Economic policy

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