Macro - Weekly Briefings - US

Macro - Weekly Briefings - US

Do not bet against the US labor market. Its strength gives the Federal Reserve cover to wait longer than we thought before cutting interest rates. The Fed has a bias toward cutting interest rates this year but the strength of the labor market and recent gains in inflation are tying the central bank's hands. The labor market does not need to show cracks for the Fed to cut but inflation needs to moderate further; we should get better news on the CPI next week. We forecast the headline and core CPI was up 0.3% m/m in March.

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