Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic

We have cut our 2022 GDP forecast for Syria by 7ppts to a 3.1% contraction due to a depreciating Syrian pound (SYP) and heightened inflation. Soaring global prices have hit Syria hard given its reliance on imported food and fuel. We believe GDP will recover to growth of 3% in 2023 and 6% in 2024 as reconstruction begins via reproachment with Arab states, Russian investment, and participation in China’s Belt and Road initiative. However, lack of government revenue and access to financing will severely restrict the pace and scale of recovery.