Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal



We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 1.6% from 1.5% and kept our 2025 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.9%. Portugal's current account surged in January, partly driven by tourism. While the tourism boost had more to do with seasonal adjustments than actual activity – January is a relatively quiet month for the sector – a similar pattern last year resulted in a large upside surprise in Q1 GDP. A stronger-than-expected start to the year would set a high base for 2024 average growth computations and likely prompt a further upgrade next month. We'll assess this after the release of the preliminary GDP figures on April 30.


Portugal: Hints that L1 growth may surprise to the upside
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
Policy
politics

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