Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We have cut our baseline forecasts for Portugal following another revision to inflation, which we expect to peak higher and remain elevated for longer. We now think the economy will be hit with a mild recession this winter, meaning that 2023 will bear the brunt of the downgrade in full year terms. While our 2022 GDP growth forecast was cut to 6.3% from 6.5% last month, we now see 2023 GDP as flat, as opposed to the 1.3% uplift we anticipated last month.
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