Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal

We have cut our baseline forecasts for Portugal following another revision to inflation, which we expect to peak higher and remain elevated for longer. We now think the economy will be hit with a mild recession this winter, meaning that 2023 will bear the brunt of the downgrade in full year terms. While our 2022 GDP growth forecast was cut to 6.3% from 6.5% last month, we now see 2023 GDP as flat, as opposed to the 1.3% uplift we anticipated last month.

Portugal: economy to be hit with a mild Recession this winter
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade

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