Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Lebanon by 0.4ppts to 0.4%, as a domestic political vacuum and the threat of war between Israel and Hezbollah hang over the economy. This is offsetting the support for activity from a stable exchange rate and disinflation. Our baseline assumes the domestic and regional backdrop will improve, with growth rising to 3% next year. But the possibility of a full-scale conflict means risks to the outlook are firmly to the downside.
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