Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its real GDP forecast to 0.1% y/y this year. This is much less than our expectation of 1.6% growth. While we expect oil GDP to have growth of 5.8%, our non-oil forecast stands relatively high at 4.1%. High-frequency indicators support our view that while the consumer sector will witness the impact of higher borrowing costs, the government's support through higher salaries and subsidies will keep it somewhat resilient. Bank credit growth remained relatively sticky at 3.3% y/y in July. Consumer and housing loans grew by 2.3% and 3.9%, respectively, during the month.

Kuwait: non-oil economy continues to aid overall growth
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Downside risks remain significant
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and Politics

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