Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland

A 5.4% q/q fall in Irish GDP in Q4 2021 was surprisingly weak. But the drop was driven by a surge in intellectual property imports by multinationals, exaggerating the underlying weakness. A spike in Q4 imports is likely to reverse, causing GDP growth to rebound in early 2022. But the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on energy prices is pushing inflation higher and will weigh on growth. Overall, we still expect GDP to grow by close to 4% this year, similar to last month's forecast, followed by a rise of around 3.5% in 2023.

Ireland: Impact of war in Ukraine clouds the outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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